## Bond Yields at Multi-Decade Highs: The Market’s Foundation Is Changing **Government bond yields at multi-decade highs are changing the pricing backdrop for stocks, gold and crypto.** ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ### Where We Stand — September 4 Close **U.S.:** 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.78%, after reaching 4.812%, its highest since November 2023. **UK:** 10-year gilt closed at 5.13%, reaching 5.29%, its highest since August 2007. **Europe & Japan:** Germany’s 10-year reached 3.39%; Japan’s JGB crossed 3% for the first time since 1996. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ### Why Yields Are Rising **Energy inflation is back.** U.S.–Iran tensions and Hormuz disruption pushed Brent to 96.28 $ and WTI to 91.48 $, raising inflation. **Fiscal pressure is worsening.** U.S. debt exceeded 40 trillion $, with the 2026 deficit projected at 1.9 trillion $. **Fed expectations shifted.** August NFP hit 162K versus 55K expected, strengthening the September hike case. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ### Impact on Asset Classes **Equities.** Higher yields pressure growth stocks. Friday: S&P 500 -0.38%, Dow -0.51%, Nasdaq -0.29%. **Gold.** Gold fell to 4,432 $, about 21% below its record, as higher real yields increased holding costs. **Crypto.** Bitcoin is around 79,900 $. It rose above 81,000 $ when yields eased, then fell below 80,000 $ after stronger jobs data. Support: 75,000–76,500 $. Resistance: 81,000–86,000 $. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ### What Is the Real Risk? The danger is not the **level** of yields, but the **reason** behind the rise. Fiscal distrust and inflation are more damaging. Rising yields increase interest costs and force more issuance. Inflation shocks can push bonds and equities down together; crypto faces the same liquidity risk. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ### What to Watch This Week Wednesday: 10-year Treasury auction. Thursday: PPI and jobless claims. Friday: CPI, expected at 0.4% headline and 0.2% monthly growth. Japan’s bond auctions, Hormuz and oil prices remain drivers. $BTC