Can Bitcoin rise to 1 million US dollars?
I believe this is first and foremost a mathematical question, not a matter of belief.
At present, the entire crypto market is only worth a few trillion dollars. Even if all capital from other assets were to flow into Bitcoin, it would still be unrealistic to support a price of 1 million US dollars.
So what will really determine whether Bitcoin can reach 1 million US dollars is not how existing funds are redistributed, but how much the market can expand in the future.
In particular, two things matter:
1. Stablecoins
They determine how much capital the on-chain ecosystem can actually support.
2. Infrastructure
It determines whether that capital can truly enter payments, RWA, DeFi, and traditional finance.
If over the next ten years stablecoins grow from the current hundreds of billions of dollars to tens of trillions, and more and more real-world assets and financial activities move on-chain, causing the entire crypto market to expand from a few trillion dollars to tens of trillions, then Bitcoin at 1 million US dollars will truly have a mathematical basis.
Bitcoin at 1 million US dollars is not a price story; essentially, it is a story of market expansion.
In essence, Bitcoin’s rise to 120,000 US dollars has benefited from the validation of market scale. If Ethereum had been born a few years later, Bitcoin today would not have reached 100,000 US dollars either.
However, even if it reaches 1 million US dollars, most people still won’t be able to hold it. You can ask yourself whether you can hold gold.
What’s more, it may eventually reach a certain market scale and then move sideways for decades like gold. The larger an asset’s market scale and the greater its weight, the lower its volatility. You will always encounter that one “super cycle” of sideways movement, and even two, three, or four four-year cycles could be in a sideways state. The larger the asset’s quality and scale, the more it is influenced by the global macro environment. This is a very simple truth.
When global institutions have all increased their Bitcoin holdings, where will the incremental demand come from? That will determine whether Bitcoin in a future cycle enters a “super sideways consolidation cycle” — maybe 16 years, maybe longer.
Right now you can imagine governments, central banks, and institutions each increasing their Bitcoin allocations by a certain ratio, but when they all truly come in to increase holdings, it also means the end of narrative-driven fantasy growth, leaving only the impact of global macro increments.
At this point, we must think about one question: which crypto assets in the future market will be high-quality assets
$BTC $ETH
I believe this is first and foremost a mathematical question, not a matter of belief.
At present, the entire crypto market is only worth a few trillion dollars. Even if all capital from other assets were to flow into Bitcoin, it would still be unrealistic to support a price of 1 million US dollars.
So what will really determine whether Bitcoin can reach 1 million US dollars is not how existing funds are redistributed, but how much the market can expand in the future.
In particular, two things matter:
1. Stablecoins
They determine how much capital the on-chain ecosystem can actually support.
2. Infrastructure
It determines whether that capital can truly enter payments, RWA, DeFi, and traditional finance.
If over the next ten years stablecoins grow from the current hundreds of billions of dollars to tens of trillions, and more and more real-world assets and financial activities move on-chain, causing the entire crypto market to expand from a few trillion dollars to tens of trillions, then Bitcoin at 1 million US dollars will truly have a mathematical basis.
Bitcoin at 1 million US dollars is not a price story; essentially, it is a story of market expansion.
In essence, Bitcoin’s rise to 120,000 US dollars has benefited from the validation of market scale. If Ethereum had been born a few years later, Bitcoin today would not have reached 100,000 US dollars either.
However, even if it reaches 1 million US dollars, most people still won’t be able to hold it. You can ask yourself whether you can hold gold.
What’s more, it may eventually reach a certain market scale and then move sideways for decades like gold. The larger an asset’s market scale and the greater its weight, the lower its volatility. You will always encounter that one “super cycle” of sideways movement, and even two, three, or four four-year cycles could be in a sideways state. The larger the asset’s quality and scale, the more it is influenced by the global macro environment. This is a very simple truth.
When global institutions have all increased their Bitcoin holdings, where will the incremental demand come from? That will determine whether Bitcoin in a future cycle enters a “super sideways consolidation cycle” — maybe 16 years, maybe longer.
Right now you can imagine governments, central banks, and institutions each increasing their Bitcoin allocations by a certain ratio, but when they all truly come in to increase holdings, it also means the end of narrative-driven fantasy growth, leaving only the impact of global macro increments.
At this point, we must think about one question: which crypto assets in the future market will be high-quality assets
$BTC $ETH