At 78.75, DASH got rejected twice today and still couldn’t break through: first it probed the high around 8 a.m., then tried again at 1 p.m. at 78.68, before three consecutive bearish candles pulled it back to 69.5, and the 15-minute MA20 was broken as well. But perpetual contract OI never stopped rising: up 12% in 7 hours, with the quadrant reading marked bull_strong, while spot also saw 12 candles of net inflow over the past 3 hours.
A closer look at the aggressive orders gives it away: contract aggressive sells were 207k contracts versus 101k buys, with buyers accounting for only 32.7%, and the 7-hour aggressive order share dropped 61%. This new OI isn’t bulls taking the lead; it looks more like shorts building positions above 78. The more it falls, the heavier the selling gets, and leverage has become fuel for suppressing the price.
Spot is leaking too: although there was a net inflow of 1.8 million coins over 3 hours, the latest 15 minutes flipped to a net outflow of 14k, meaning the hands pushing the rally are pulling back. Spot is up only 0.74% in 24h, lagging contracts by 11%, and can’t hold this price.
After a 63% run in three days and two failed attempts at 78.75, with long positioning already at 67.5%, this level is crowded. I’m short here. The variable is that whale long share is still increasing by 21% over 7 hours; if spot flows back in and squeezes shorts, there could be strong liquidation above 78.
I’ll only consider a reversal on one signal: reclaim 71.86 on volume and then retest 78.75, while spot keeps turning positive over 15 minutes. That would mean it’s just a pullback, and I’d flip long. #dash $DASH
A closer look at the aggressive orders gives it away: contract aggressive sells were 207k contracts versus 101k buys, with buyers accounting for only 32.7%, and the 7-hour aggressive order share dropped 61%. This new OI isn’t bulls taking the lead; it looks more like shorts building positions above 78. The more it falls, the heavier the selling gets, and leverage has become fuel for suppressing the price.
Spot is leaking too: although there was a net inflow of 1.8 million coins over 3 hours, the latest 15 minutes flipped to a net outflow of 14k, meaning the hands pushing the rally are pulling back. Spot is up only 0.74% in 24h, lagging contracts by 11%, and can’t hold this price.
After a 63% run in three days and two failed attempts at 78.75, with long positioning already at 67.5%, this level is crowded. I’m short here. The variable is that whale long share is still increasing by 21% over 7 hours; if spot flows back in and squeezes shorts, there could be strong liquidation above 78.
I’ll only consider a reversal on one signal: reclaim 71.86 on volume and then retest 78.75, while spot keeps turning positive over 15 minutes. That would mean it’s just a pullback, and I’d flip long. #dash $DASH
