Apple's up 8% in the past month and 30% since April. The Sept. 9 event — Ternus's first as CEO, rumored foldable iPhone, full product refresh — is being priced like a blowout before it happens.
That's the setup I'm watching, because "buy the rumor, sell the news" is not a cliché when the stock is at 37 times earnings.
The June quarter was genuinely strong: revenue up 16% to $109 billion, earnings up 27%, iPhone sales up 22%. But the September quarter guidance tells a different story — sales growth slowing to 9-11%, a 2.5-point FX headwind, supply constraints, gross margin compressing from 50.1% to 47-48%. That report lands in October, right after the event hype peaks.
Morgan Stanley has a $360 target — about 9% upside from here — and estimates the foldable alone generates $14 billion in December-quarter revenue. iPhone 18 prices are expected to run 10-20% higher than iPhone 17. The foldable reportedly retails above $2,000. So the product cycle is real.
The mistake the setup is tempting you into: chasing the pre-event momentum into a valuation that's already 37x earnings, then holding through a September-quarter report that's guided softer. The honest journal entry here is that the product cycle supports the stock over 6-12 months, but the entry point after a 30% run and before a softer quarter is not where discipline lives.
Wait for the dip. The products will still be there.
That's the setup I'm watching, because "buy the rumor, sell the news" is not a cliché when the stock is at 37 times earnings.
The June quarter was genuinely strong: revenue up 16% to $109 billion, earnings up 27%, iPhone sales up 22%. But the September quarter guidance tells a different story — sales growth slowing to 9-11%, a 2.5-point FX headwind, supply constraints, gross margin compressing from 50.1% to 47-48%. That report lands in October, right after the event hype peaks.
Morgan Stanley has a $360 target — about 9% upside from here — and estimates the foldable alone generates $14 billion in December-quarter revenue. iPhone 18 prices are expected to run 10-20% higher than iPhone 17. The foldable reportedly retails above $2,000. So the product cycle is real.
The mistake the setup is tempting you into: chasing the pre-event momentum into a valuation that's already 37x earnings, then holding through a September-quarter report that's guided softer. The honest journal entry here is that the product cycle supports the stock over 6-12 months, but the entry point after a 30% run and before a softer quarter is not where discipline lives.
Wait for the dip. The products will still be there.
