Three bearish factors still can’t push down BTC: oil prices nearing $100, US-Iran escalation, and a 60% rate-hike probability. Who is still buying?
BTC’s price action over the past two days has been a bit unusual.
The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate. The US military confirmed strikes on three Iranian crude oil transport ships, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have risen again, and Brent crude is still hovering around $96.
On the other side, the US added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, nearly three times market expectations, and strong employment data has pushed up expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike.
Under normal logic, it should be:
war escalation → oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → the Fed turns more hawkish → risk assets come under pressure.
But BTC did not continue to sell off; instead, it pushed back up to around $81,000–$82,000.
What’s even more interesting is the flow of capital.
Over the past week, US equity funds saw net outflows of about $11.1 billion, while global money market funds saw net inflows of about $46.1 billion. Traditional capital is clearly moving into defensive positioning.
But US spot BTC ETFs instead recorded net inflows of nearly $987 million during the same period, with BlackRock-related BTC products absorbing about $692 million over five trading days.
This creates a very interesting divergence:
Traditional markets are in risk-off mode, while institutional money in BTC is still buying.
Right now, BTC is facing not the absence of bearish factors, but three very clear macro pressures at the same time:
Oil prices nearing $100.
The US-Iran conflict continuing to escalate.
Expectations for Fed rate hikes rising again.
As a result, the $77,000 area did not break down further; instead, price reclaimed $80,000.
This shows that what’s really worth watching right now is no longer whether there are bearish factors, but:
With so many bearish factors on the table, why can’t BTC go down?
The answer may very well lie in capital flows.
Continuous ETF inflows are absorbing selling pressure, while a clear rotation of positions is also taking place around the $77,000–$80,000 area.
Of course, it is still too early to say that BTC has become a safe-haven asset.
But there is one signal worth watching closely next:
If oil prices remain elevated, rate-hike expectations do not ease significantly, US-Iran tensions do not cool down, and BTC is still able to hold the $80,000 area, then this round of BTC relative strength can no longer simply be interpreted as an ordinary rebound.
What the market should fear most is often not bearish news appearing.
It is when bearish news keeps coming one after another, yet the price starts refusing to fall.
$BTC #比特币 #BTC触及80000美元 #crypto
BTC’s price action over the past two days has been a bit unusual.
The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate. The US military confirmed strikes on three Iranian crude oil transport ships, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have risen again, and Brent crude is still hovering around $96.
On the other side, the US added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, nearly three times market expectations, and strong employment data has pushed up expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike.
Under normal logic, it should be:
war escalation → oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → the Fed turns more hawkish → risk assets come under pressure.
But BTC did not continue to sell off; instead, it pushed back up to around $81,000–$82,000.
What’s even more interesting is the flow of capital.
Over the past week, US equity funds saw net outflows of about $11.1 billion, while global money market funds saw net inflows of about $46.1 billion. Traditional capital is clearly moving into defensive positioning.
But US spot BTC ETFs instead recorded net inflows of nearly $987 million during the same period, with BlackRock-related BTC products absorbing about $692 million over five trading days.
This creates a very interesting divergence:
Traditional markets are in risk-off mode, while institutional money in BTC is still buying.
Right now, BTC is facing not the absence of bearish factors, but three very clear macro pressures at the same time:
Oil prices nearing $100.
The US-Iran conflict continuing to escalate.
Expectations for Fed rate hikes rising again.
As a result, the $77,000 area did not break down further; instead, price reclaimed $80,000.
This shows that what’s really worth watching right now is no longer whether there are bearish factors, but:
With so many bearish factors on the table, why can’t BTC go down?
The answer may very well lie in capital flows.
Continuous ETF inflows are absorbing selling pressure, while a clear rotation of positions is also taking place around the $77,000–$80,000 area.
Of course, it is still too early to say that BTC has become a safe-haven asset.
But there is one signal worth watching closely next:
If oil prices remain elevated, rate-hike expectations do not ease significantly, US-Iran tensions do not cool down, and BTC is still able to hold the $80,000 area, then this round of BTC relative strength can no longer simply be interpreted as an ordinary rebound.
What the market should fear most is often not bearish news appearing.
It is when bearish news keeps coming one after another, yet the price starts refusing to fall.
$BTC #比特币 #BTC触及80000美元 #crypto