#bitcoinethereumhitmultimonthhighs
🚨 THIS SEPTEMBER COULD BE THE WORST MONTH IN 5 YEARS. THEY ARE CALLING IT A BOOM. WATCH THIS MONDAY CLOSELY.
162,000 jobs added in August. Triple what economists expected. Trump and the administration are calling it proof the economy is booming.
One detail nobody's talking about: according to a CNBC analysis of the BLS data, women accounted for 158,000 of those jobs, about 98% of the total.
Men added just 4,000 net positions. That is not what a broad-based hiring boom usually looks like.
The market sold off anyway. Same day.
→ S&P 500: -0.38%
→ Dow: -0.51%
→ Nasdaq: -0.29%
→ Bitcoin: down as much as 3.5%, from $82,240 to below $79,000
Read that again. Stocks AND crypto sold off on "great" news.
Here's why: a print this hot just handed the Fed exactly
the excuse it needed. September hike odds jumped from 49% to as high as 63% within hours.
The louder the "everything is fine" narrative gets,
the more it's worth asking who's positioning for the opposite.
And the backdrop this lands on is already fragile:
→ 30Y Treasury yield: 5.24%, near a 19-year high
→ 10Y yield: 4.80%
→ The Treasury already doubled its own bond buyback program weeks ago, trying to hold yields down before this print even hit
→ China's Treasury holdings just fell to $633B,
the lowest level since 2008
→ At the same time, China has been buying gold for over 20 straight months
→ Japan's 30Y bond yield just hit an all-time record, 4.186%
→ Its 10Y hit 3%, highest since 1996
→ The US Treasury Secretary is now publicly pressuring Japan to hike its own rates, right as decades of near-zero policy there funded the biggest carry trade in modern finance
And the Iran conflict never went away. The US and Iran already exchanged direct strikes this week, and Trump is now weighing a hit on Kharg Island, Iran's most critical oil export hub. Oil is already climbing on the risk alone.
$ARB
$RAYSOL
$BULLA
🚨 THIS SEPTEMBER COULD BE THE WORST MONTH IN 5 YEARS. THEY ARE CALLING IT A BOOM. WATCH THIS MONDAY CLOSELY.
162,000 jobs added in August. Triple what economists expected. Trump and the administration are calling it proof the economy is booming.
One detail nobody's talking about: according to a CNBC analysis of the BLS data, women accounted for 158,000 of those jobs, about 98% of the total.
Men added just 4,000 net positions. That is not what a broad-based hiring boom usually looks like.
The market sold off anyway. Same day.
→ S&P 500: -0.38%
→ Dow: -0.51%
→ Nasdaq: -0.29%
→ Bitcoin: down as much as 3.5%, from $82,240 to below $79,000
Read that again. Stocks AND crypto sold off on "great" news.
Here's why: a print this hot just handed the Fed exactly
the excuse it needed. September hike odds jumped from 49% to as high as 63% within hours.
The louder the "everything is fine" narrative gets,
the more it's worth asking who's positioning for the opposite.
And the backdrop this lands on is already fragile:
→ 30Y Treasury yield: 5.24%, near a 19-year high
→ 10Y yield: 4.80%
→ The Treasury already doubled its own bond buyback program weeks ago, trying to hold yields down before this print even hit
→ China's Treasury holdings just fell to $633B,
the lowest level since 2008
→ At the same time, China has been buying gold for over 20 straight months
→ Japan's 30Y bond yield just hit an all-time record, 4.186%
→ Its 10Y hit 3%, highest since 1996
→ The US Treasury Secretary is now publicly pressuring Japan to hike its own rates, right as decades of near-zero policy there funded the biggest carry trade in modern finance
And the Iran conflict never went away. The US and Iran already exchanged direct strikes this week, and Trump is now weighing a hit on Kharg Island, Iran's most critical oil export hub. Oil is already climbing on the risk alone.
$ARB
$RAYSOL
$BULLA