Here we go again, Putin is talking ceasefire with Trump's envoy. The market's first reaction is definitely going to be, "Peace is coming, safe havens are done for," $XAU should hurry and run? I’m not so sure.
How many times has this script played out? Talking with words, fighting with actions. The busiest moments at the negotiating table are often the points when the situation is most deadlocked. If there really is a ceasefire, that would be bearish for gold, no doubt. But is it really a ceasefire now? $XAU 4437 this level is completely unmoved intraday, and the market is sharper than anyone. Anyone who believes it is a fool.
Instead, that small rise at $CL 91.74 is a bit interesting. If the market truly expected supply to recover, oil prices should have already collapsed. This tiny increase feels more like it's saying: capital simply isn't taking this meeting seriously at all. From a conspiracy-theory angle, if the talks fall apart, there's a reason to keep talking, and oil prices are the best commentary.
Don't follow the headline, follow the money.
#gold
How many times has this script played out? Talking with words, fighting with actions. The busiest moments at the negotiating table are often the points when the situation is most deadlocked. If there really is a ceasefire, that would be bearish for gold, no doubt. But is it really a ceasefire now? $XAU 4437 this level is completely unmoved intraday, and the market is sharper than anyone. Anyone who believes it is a fool.
Instead, that small rise at $CL 91.74 is a bit interesting. If the market truly expected supply to recover, oil prices should have already collapsed. This tiny increase feels more like it's saying: capital simply isn't taking this meeting seriously at all. From a conspiracy-theory angle, if the talks fall apart, there's a reason to keep talking, and oil prices are the best commentary.
Don't follow the headline, follow the money.
#gold