ARB has surged more than 40% in two days, thanks to Robinhood Chain turning out to be highly profitable.

Market reports say Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum’s technology and puts 8% of net protocol revenue into the Arbitrum DAO treasury, with peak daily distributions reaching about $176,000. Gas revenue for a single day once hit $1.92 million, quite a spectacle.

But the money goes into the DAO treasury; there is no mention of buybacks or burns, and nothing says it will be distributed to ARB holders. Gas on Arbitrum One is paid in ETH, so ARB is still essentially a governance token.

The technology licensing fee is real and is flowing in, but there is still one layer of design missing before it becomes “ARB value capture.”

What stands out even more is that 92 million ARB will unlock on September 16, hanging overhead.

This rally looks more like trading the expectation of “potential future empowerment,” combined with low liquidity and FOMO-driven chasing.

One question: if the revenue never goes to ARB, then when the unlock arrives, what will support the price?