Volume expansion on the pump day sets the next day's range, not its side.
Binance USDT-M, 80 perps, 25 Apr 2025 to 3 Sep 2026. 256 days closed 25% or more above the prior close, split by that day's volume against the prior 20-day median.
Under 10 times normal volume, 108 cases: next-day median high 9.7% above that close, median low 10.4% below, 19% touched both.
Over 10 times, 148 cases: high 15.1%, low 15.2%, 31% touched both.
The median close was negative in both groups, 2.1% and 1.2% down. The volume tell moves the range, not the odds on direction. It prices your leverage: 10x breaks near 9.5% against you, 5x near 19%, 3x near 32%.
#Market_Update
Binance USDT-M, 80 perps, 25 Apr 2025 to 3 Sep 2026. 256 days closed 25% or more above the prior close, split by that day's volume against the prior 20-day median.
Under 10 times normal volume, 108 cases: next-day median high 9.7% above that close, median low 10.4% below, 19% touched both.
Over 10 times, 148 cases: high 15.1%, low 15.2%, 31% touched both.
The median close was negative in both groups, 2.1% and 1.2% down. The volume tell moves the range, not the odds on direction. It prices your leverage: 10x breaks near 9.5% against you, 5x near 19%, 3x near 32%.
#Market_Update