TRUMP hit a wall after pulling back to the 2.37 area. It has risen 5.85% in the past 24 hours, yet it still can’t break through the intraday high of 2.454. I watched it for a while, and what really needs explaining is not the price, but the fight for money.
On the spot side, this is real money being borrowed: the spot leverage lending ratio surged 1101% in 12 hours to 17.8, the spot long/short ratio of 11.36 is still climbing, net inflows over the past three hours reached 1 million u, all 12 bars were green, and large orders also posted a net inflow of 530,000. All the borrowed money is being thrown into spot buying, which is a strong show of positioning.
On the futures side, it is the opposite: open interest was cut by 11.2% in one day, the system is showing a clearing quadrant, active selling pressure accounts for 61%, and the futures long/short ratio is 0.65. Spot is borrowing leverage to take delivery, while futures are unwinding leverage to sell; the two sides are fighting each other, and that is why price is pinned in the 2.36-2.40 range.
I’m on the spot side. Since the move up from 1.984, futures leverage has already been washed out through one round (OI down 11%), whale positions are 66% long, weak hands have been flushed out, and the quality of spot support is stronger than futures. At this level, I choose to go long.
The risk is that borrowed money is vulnerable to a squeeze: once spot three-hour net inflows turn from green to red and the lending ratio rolls over, it means the borrowers are repaying. I would immediately reverse my position. If volume pushes through 2.45, then 2.514 is the next stop. #trump $TRUMP
On the spot side, this is real money being borrowed: the spot leverage lending ratio surged 1101% in 12 hours to 17.8, the spot long/short ratio of 11.36 is still climbing, net inflows over the past three hours reached 1 million u, all 12 bars were green, and large orders also posted a net inflow of 530,000. All the borrowed money is being thrown into spot buying, which is a strong show of positioning.
On the futures side, it is the opposite: open interest was cut by 11.2% in one day, the system is showing a clearing quadrant, active selling pressure accounts for 61%, and the futures long/short ratio is 0.65. Spot is borrowing leverage to take delivery, while futures are unwinding leverage to sell; the two sides are fighting each other, and that is why price is pinned in the 2.36-2.40 range.
I’m on the spot side. Since the move up from 1.984, futures leverage has already been washed out through one round (OI down 11%), whale positions are 66% long, weak hands have been flushed out, and the quality of spot support is stronger than futures. At this level, I choose to go long.
The risk is that borrowed money is vulnerable to a squeeze: once spot three-hour net inflows turn from green to red and the lending ratio rolls over, it means the borrowers are repaying. I would immediately reverse my position. If volume pushes through 2.45, then 2.514 is the next stop. #trump $TRUMP
