#美国8月非农数据今日公布 162K The nonfarm payrolls were just a fake spectacle. The three numbers that really matter, which few people look at, are:
Household survey employment +569k (the establishment survey was only +162k, a gap of 400k; gig workers and self-employed people were included) The birth-death model estimated about +74k jobs this month—not jobs created by companies filling out forms The information sector (data, hosting, publishing) cut 23k; food service and education propped up the headline
ADP private payrolls were only +38k, while BLS private payrolls said +127k; the two don’t match.
Short term: the odds of a rate hike get revised up, first draining liquidity from risk assets. Medium term: official payrolls are declining, people are re-entering the labor force, and future revisions will likely need to be adjusted again. The real gut punch will be CPI, not today’s numbers.
Do you think the economy is getting stronger, or is the reporting just putting on a show? $BTC $ETH #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve
Household survey employment +569k (the establishment survey was only +162k, a gap of 400k; gig workers and self-employed people were included) The birth-death model estimated about +74k jobs this month—not jobs created by companies filling out forms The information sector (data, hosting, publishing) cut 23k; food service and education propped up the headline
ADP private payrolls were only +38k, while BLS private payrolls said +127k; the two don’t match.
Short term: the odds of a rate hike get revised up, first draining liquidity from risk assets. Medium term: official payrolls are declining, people are re-entering the labor force, and future revisions will likely need to be adjusted again. The real gut punch will be CPI, not today’s numbers.
Do you think the economy is getting stronger, or is the reporting just putting on a show? $BTC $ETH #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve
