Apple's first foldable iPhone could add nearly $14 billion to December-quarter revenue, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring estimates, on the eve of the September 9 product keynote.
Key takeaways:
Morgan Stanley estimates the foldable iPhone's contribution to the December quarter at about $14 billion, with 7 to 8 million units produced in the second half of 2026.
Rising memory costs are expected to drive a year-over-year increase of more than $200 for Pro models, marking the largest price increase ever attempted by Apple for comparable specifications.
The September 9 keynote will be the first major product presentation under the leadership of new CEO John Ternus.
Morgan Stanley’s projections for foldable iPhone revenue
Head of U.S. technology hardware equity research at Morgan Stanley, Woodring presents the device as the biggest design shift for the iPhone since the arrival of the iPhone X in 2017.
He expects production of 7 to 8 million units in the second half of 2026 and up to 20 million in the product’s first full cycle. The first deliveries are expected in October or early November, according to his note.
The bank is betting on strong initial demand combined with limited supply, a mix that could stretch delivery times well beyond launch weekend and across the entire holiday quarter. Woodring maintains an Overweight rating and a 360-dollar price target for the stock, which closed Wednesday at 324 dollars, about 10% below that level.
Also read: iPhone Ultra could reach an average price of 2,550 dollars and allow Apple to reshape the foldables market
Pricing of the iPhone 18 Pro and memory cost inflation
The rise in NAND and DRAM prices should translate into a year-over-year increase of more than 200 dollars for Pro models, a jump that Woodring describes as the broadest series of “apples-to-apples” price increases in iPhone history.
The major hardware evolution expected on the iPhone 18 Pro is the move to TSMC’s 2-nanometer process, which is expected to speed up artificial intelligence tasks directly on the device. Woodring notes that Apple seems more focused on securing its components than on finding new markets: memory supply could still limit production in the short term.
The analyst also warns that Apple shares tend to rise in the days leading up to launches before pulling back on the day itself, a pattern that makes the stock bet dependent on what comes next. Sustainable gains, he says, will depend on later upward revisions to forecasts.
The September 9 event, the first major test for John Ternus
This keynote will be the first major product presentation under the leadership of John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook on September 1 after leading the group’s hardware engineering.
Other analysts place the price of the foldable iPhone between 2,300 and 2,500 dollars, well above anything currently in the standard iPhone lineup. The device is widely expected to carry the Ultra or Fold name.
Apple remained absent from the foldable smartphone segment for years, leaving Samsung to shape the market with its Galaxy Fold lineup and bear the initial engineering costs, while Cupertino watched its competitors deal with the teething problems.
Apple stock has gained nearly 20% in 2026 as of September 2, and the September 9 keynote marks the start of what many analysts consider Apple’s biggest wave of new device launches in years.
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