Recent complete review of the crypto market
⚠️ This is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Contracts are high risk.
1. Overview of key macro events
1. In the earlier phase, the market was originally betting on weakening employment and trading on expectations of rate cuts and easing. Funds had already slightly pushed up coin prices in advance; Fed official Waller sounded dovish, and the market generally expected rates to remain unchanged.
2. The non-farm payrolls data came in much hotter than expected: new jobs increased by 162,000, far above the expected 55,000, showing extremely strong employment resilience. The market immediately repriced the probability of rate hikes, with September hike expectations jumping to nearly 60%. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, and risk assets came under pressure and pulled back across the board.
3. The two most important upcoming time points for the market are: September 11 CPI inflation data and the September 16 Federal Reserve policy meeting. These two results will set the tone for the short-term direction.
2. Price action and capital flow performance
• BTC: Before the data, it surged to test 81300. After the non-farm data was released, it quickly dropped to 78600, then slightly recovered. The 80,000 level has shifted from support to a short-term psychological resistance level.
• ETH: More volatile, it lost the key support at 2500 and moved down to fluctuate around 2450. The market has shifted from a one-sided bullish trend to a wide-ranging, macro-data-driven oscillation mode.
3. Summary of bullish and bearish logic
✅ Bullish logic: If CPI inflation cools next week, rate hike expectations will ease, easing expectations will return, and coin prices will see a recovery rally.
❌ Bearish logic: If CPI rises again, inflation remains sticky, and the Fed keeps the option of hiking rates, liquidity tightens, and selling pressure at high levels continues to push prices lower.$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC续刷历史新高 #Lululemon因指引疲软跌20%
⚠️ This is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Contracts are high risk.
1. Overview of key macro events
1. In the earlier phase, the market was originally betting on weakening employment and trading on expectations of rate cuts and easing. Funds had already slightly pushed up coin prices in advance; Fed official Waller sounded dovish, and the market generally expected rates to remain unchanged.
2. The non-farm payrolls data came in much hotter than expected: new jobs increased by 162,000, far above the expected 55,000, showing extremely strong employment resilience. The market immediately repriced the probability of rate hikes, with September hike expectations jumping to nearly 60%. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, and risk assets came under pressure and pulled back across the board.
3. The two most important upcoming time points for the market are: September 11 CPI inflation data and the September 16 Federal Reserve policy meeting. These two results will set the tone for the short-term direction.
2. Price action and capital flow performance
• BTC: Before the data, it surged to test 81300. After the non-farm data was released, it quickly dropped to 78600, then slightly recovered. The 80,000 level has shifted from support to a short-term psychological resistance level.
• ETH: More volatile, it lost the key support at 2500 and moved down to fluctuate around 2450. The market has shifted from a one-sided bullish trend to a wide-ranging, macro-data-driven oscillation mode.
3. Summary of bullish and bearish logic
✅ Bullish logic: If CPI inflation cools next week, rate hike expectations will ease, easing expectations will return, and coin prices will see a recovery rally.
❌ Bearish logic: If CPI rises again, inflation remains sticky, and the Fed keeps the option of hiking rates, liquidity tightens, and selling pressure at high levels continues to push prices lower.$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC续刷历史新高 #Lululemon因指引疲软跌20%
