Spot Gold Full Weekly Review | After Non-Farm Payrolls, the Bull-Bear Logic Is Completely Clarified

This week, gold as a whole experienced wide and violent volatility, first falling, then rebounding strongly, and then being deeply shaken out after non-farm payrolls. It was a typical volatile washout week driven by news and followed by technicals. Bulls and bears switched back and forth repeatedly, and the pace was extremely fast. This week’s price action can fully serve as the most standard data-driven textbook行情 of recent times.

1. Weekly Overall Trend Review

At the start of the week, the market continued to move weakly downward, with prices under持续 pressure and drifting lower;

Midweek, Fed officials made dovish remarks, market expectations for rate cuts heated up, U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated together, and gold saw a strong corrective rebound, reaching a high of 4510. Short-term bullish sentiment fully recovered;

Most of the market followed the trend and stayed bullish, believing a bottom reversal had formed at low levels, but Friday's nonfarm payrolls triggered a super reversal and shakeout.

Nonfarm payrolls data came in far above expectations:

Expected 56,000, actual 162,000, with the previous figure revised up as well, showing a sharp recovery in the labor market.

The data directly दबressed rate-cut expectations, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields surged quickly, and gold plunged instantly, falling more than 100 points from the 4490 high, touching a low of 4365, then recovering in late trading and finally closing around 4430.

This week ultimately formed a weekly candle with long upper and lower wicks, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears became completely intense.

2. Core logic of the news side (the biggest focus this week)

1. Speech can change short-term sentiment, but only data can determine the trend

The rebound driven by dovish remarks during the week was preemptive speculative sentiment by the market, a corrective move, not a reversal.

The biggest mistake many traders made this week was:

Treated an oversold rebound as a trend reversal, went long heavily, and ended up being heavily shaken out by the nonfarm release.

2. This nonfarm payrolls report was extremely strong, but gold did not collapse into a sharp sell-off

The data came in three times above expectations and was extremely strong. The bearish impact was fully priced in and sold off sharply, but support held precisely at the 4365 low.

That is enough to show:

The long-term bullish foundation for gold is still intact. Bears are only a short-term correction to macro expectations, not the start of a new one-way decline.

3. The market logic has completely shifted

This week fully confirmed:

Before data, watch sentiment; after data, watch reality.

The core trading logic for gold right now is to not chase strength after good news, and not blindly follow sell-offs after bad news.

3. Professional technical review

1. Weekly chart

Long upper wick + long lower wick, a typical range-bound shakeout pattern; neither bulls nor bears have absolute advantage, and next week will continue to be mainly a range battle.

2. Daily chart

First a strong bullish rebound for repair, then a strong bearish candle that erased the gains.

The key dividing line between strength and weakness remains locked at 4425

Hold above this level, and the market remains range-bound bullish; break below it effectively, and weakness returns.

3. Short-term cycle

This week repeatedly broke through moving averages, with extremely strong and repeated volatility.

In a ranging market, the most dangerous thing is chasing trends. Most losses this week came entirely from buying highs and selling lows.

4. This week's trading summary (very important)

1. A rebound does not equal a reversal; news-driven moves have very poor sustainability

2. Do not bet on direction with nonfarm data, and do not pre-emptively take large positions to make predictions

3. The first wave of volatility after data is often a trap; do not follow impulsively

4. Gold is currently in a consolidation and accumulation phase, with no one-way trend, only repeated fluctuations

5. Core post-market idea

This week's nonfarm payrolls have been released, and short-term market sentiment has returned to stability.

Next week, gold will still mainly trade in a range-bound correction.

Resistance above: 4500–4510

Support below: 4365–4400

Short-term rhythm: look for a rebound after pulling back to support, and look for a pullback after testing resistance. Do not chase one-way moves or guess breakouts; just trade the range prudently.

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This week's market taught us: respect the data, don't bet on trends, strictly control position size, and be patient with entry points

The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is a stable trading rhythm.