♾️ BlockInfinity Market Evening Brief · 9/4 (Friday · NFP Day)
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🌍 Macro
🔴 August nonfarm payrolls +162k, far above expectations of +56k (nearly 3x), unemployment rate 4.1% — labor market unexpectedly strong, hawkish shock.
🔴 Citi pushed back its forecast for the Fed’s next rate cut from 2026/10 to 2027/6; market probability of a September hike rose above 60%.
🟡 DXY reversed after a sharp spike, erasing the NFP gains, now at 99.12; U.S. stocks opened mixed (Dow -0.38% / S&P -0.13% / Nasdaq +0.02%).
🟢 Divergence remains: multiple institutions say next week’s CPI is the real deciding point, and NFP has not fully locked in a hike.
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🌐 International Situation
🔴 Middle East: The U.S. approved $5.75 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and $188 million to Oman; previously, the Israeli military threatened Lebanon and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
🟡 Russia-Ukraine: Ukrainian strikes knocked two major Russian refineries offline; a U.S. envoy is reportedly visiting Kyiv on 9/6 to deliver a proposal.
🟢 Gold $4,438 (-0.91%) / Silver $66.27 (-0.85%) both pulled back; WTI $91.17.
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📈 Technicals (based on closed candles)
₿ BTC $79,518 (24h -1.7%)
· Daily: price remains above all MAs (bullish structure intact), but MACD just formed a death cross, histogram turned negative at -101, RSI fell from 65 = top-side momentum fading
· 4H: bullish alignment but volume declining, RSI 53 neutral
· 1H: broke below MA20/50, MACD bearish histogram expanding, RSI 44 = short-term pullback nearing oversold
Ξ ETH $2,451 (-2.4%, weakest) Daily MACD bearish, RSI 63; 1H bearish RSI 44
◎ SOL $101.8 (-2.0%) Daily MACD death cross, RSI 62
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⚙️ Derivatives
🟡 Funding rates (8h) remain mildly positive/negative across the board with no extremes: BTC ±0.0016%, ETH +0.0024%~+0.0088%, SOL -0.0054% (shorts slightly crowded)
🟢 DVOL 37.8 (low volatility) | spot premium +$13.4/+0.017% (slightly back positive) | F&G ~73 Greed (lagging indicator)
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₿ BTC Core
🟡 Last night’s +5% short squeeze has been fully reversed by NFP, and the focus has slipped back to $79.5K. The daily higher-timeframe structure is still bullish, but the catalyst turned hawkish and momentum has weakened for three straight signals = top-range consolidation. Chasing longs and naked shorts are both dangerous; wait for direction confirmation. MaxPain magnet at $77-78K.
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🧭 Overall View
🟡 Neutral to slightly bearish (tactical). The daily trend has not reversed, but hawkish NFP plus bearish divergence and weakening momentum suggest a short-term bias toward selling into strength / top-divergence shorts. Strong support + magnet around $77-77.5K, take profits in tranches when reached. Avoid oversized one-way bets before next week’s CPI.
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🎯 Today’s Trading Plan
🔴 BTC bearish bias: short the rebound into $80,300-80,800 on divergence, stop loss $81,400 (above ATR/1H highs), targets $77,300 → $76,200; don’t chase below $79K with naked shorts. Longs require a stable retest of $77-77.5K first. Position size 30-40%.
🔴 ETH weakest: trade in the same bearish direction as BTC, short rebounds at $2,500-2,520, stop loss $2,560, targets $2,390 → $2,355.
🔴 SOL: daily death cross, short the rebound at $104-105 resistance, stop loss $106, target $97.3.
🟡 Discipline: during event week (next week’s CPI), don’t max out size, keep stops wider, and don’t chase downside with naked shorts near 1H oversold levels.
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⚠️ Risk Events
· 🔴🔴 Next week’s CPI = the watershed for whether the Fed hikes in September
· 🔴 9/17 FOMC (dot plot)
· 🟡 AVGO and other tech earnings | Middle East (Israel/Hormuz) | Russia-Ukraine (U.S. envoy visits Ukraine on 9/6)
—— BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 Macro
🔴 August nonfarm payrolls +162k, far above expectations of +56k (nearly 3x), unemployment rate 4.1% — labor market unexpectedly strong, hawkish shock.
🔴 Citi pushed back its forecast for the Fed’s next rate cut from 2026/10 to 2027/6; market probability of a September hike rose above 60%.
🟡 DXY reversed after a sharp spike, erasing the NFP gains, now at 99.12; U.S. stocks opened mixed (Dow -0.38% / S&P -0.13% / Nasdaq +0.02%).
🟢 Divergence remains: multiple institutions say next week’s CPI is the real deciding point, and NFP has not fully locked in a hike.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌐 International Situation
🔴 Middle East: The U.S. approved $5.75 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and $188 million to Oman; previously, the Israeli military threatened Lebanon and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
🟡 Russia-Ukraine: Ukrainian strikes knocked two major Russian refineries offline; a U.S. envoy is reportedly visiting Kyiv on 9/6 to deliver a proposal.
🟢 Gold $4,438 (-0.91%) / Silver $66.27 (-0.85%) both pulled back; WTI $91.17.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
📈 Technicals (based on closed candles)
₿ BTC $79,518 (24h -1.7%)
· Daily: price remains above all MAs (bullish structure intact), but MACD just formed a death cross, histogram turned negative at -101, RSI fell from 65 = top-side momentum fading
· 4H: bullish alignment but volume declining, RSI 53 neutral
· 1H: broke below MA20/50, MACD bearish histogram expanding, RSI 44 = short-term pullback nearing oversold
Ξ ETH $2,451 (-2.4%, weakest) Daily MACD bearish, RSI 63; 1H bearish RSI 44
◎ SOL $101.8 (-2.0%) Daily MACD death cross, RSI 62
━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚙️ Derivatives
🟡 Funding rates (8h) remain mildly positive/negative across the board with no extremes: BTC ±0.0016%, ETH +0.0024%~+0.0088%, SOL -0.0054% (shorts slightly crowded)
🟢 DVOL 37.8 (low volatility) | spot premium +$13.4/+0.017% (slightly back positive) | F&G ~73 Greed (lagging indicator)
━━━━━━━━━━━━
₿ BTC Core
🟡 Last night’s +5% short squeeze has been fully reversed by NFP, and the focus has slipped back to $79.5K. The daily higher-timeframe structure is still bullish, but the catalyst turned hawkish and momentum has weakened for three straight signals = top-range consolidation. Chasing longs and naked shorts are both dangerous; wait for direction confirmation. MaxPain magnet at $77-78K.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧭 Overall View
🟡 Neutral to slightly bearish (tactical). The daily trend has not reversed, but hawkish NFP plus bearish divergence and weakening momentum suggest a short-term bias toward selling into strength / top-divergence shorts. Strong support + magnet around $77-77.5K, take profits in tranches when reached. Avoid oversized one-way bets before next week’s CPI.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 Today’s Trading Plan
🔴 BTC bearish bias: short the rebound into $80,300-80,800 on divergence, stop loss $81,400 (above ATR/1H highs), targets $77,300 → $76,200; don’t chase below $79K with naked shorts. Longs require a stable retest of $77-77.5K first. Position size 30-40%.
🔴 ETH weakest: trade in the same bearish direction as BTC, short rebounds at $2,500-2,520, stop loss $2,560, targets $2,390 → $2,355.
🔴 SOL: daily death cross, short the rebound at $104-105 resistance, stop loss $106, target $97.3.
🟡 Discipline: during event week (next week’s CPI), don’t max out size, keep stops wider, and don’t chase downside with naked shorts near 1H oversold levels.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ Risk Events
· 🔴🔴 Next week’s CPI = the watershed for whether the Fed hikes in September
· 🔴 9/17 FOMC (dot plot)
· 🟡 AVGO and other tech earnings | Middle East (Israel/Hormuz) | Russia-Ukraine (U.S. envoy visits Ukraine on 9/6)
—— BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley