BTC fell below $80,000, but this shock has not yet developed into a full-blown risk-off retreat. Around 04:31 UTC on September 5, August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, far above the expected 56,000; as of 05:37, Binance was quoting $79,578.98, down 1.777% over the past 24 hours.
The market had initially bet that cooling employment would give the Fed room to stay on the sidelines. After the data was released, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 52% to 59%, with expectations turning clearly more hawkish, but BTC did not see a deeper intraday drop at the same time, suggesting sentiment is still being digested.
Stronger-than-expected jobs data first raises rate-hike expectations, lowers expectations for rate cuts, and tightens dollar liquidity.
Tighter liquidity increases the appeal of dollar assets and suppresses non-yielding assets, so it first drags on $BTC valuations and leveraged longs; if yields continue to rise, BTC is more likely to lose the $80,000 level.
On the other hand, CryptoSlate said BTC later briefly returned to around $79,570, while Ethereum was still up over 24 hours, suggesting this is more like a localized cooldown under a macro shock rather than a broad-based market selloff.
I think this is still a short-term sentiment shock. What really changes the trend will be confirmation around CPI on September 11 and the September 15-16 meeting. If BTC regains a firm footing above $80,000, or if softer inflation causes rate-hike odds to fall back, the bearish view will be invalidated.
$BTC #美联储 #多空数据
The market had initially bet that cooling employment would give the Fed room to stay on the sidelines. After the data was released, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 52% to 59%, with expectations turning clearly more hawkish, but BTC did not see a deeper intraday drop at the same time, suggesting sentiment is still being digested.
Stronger-than-expected jobs data first raises rate-hike expectations, lowers expectations for rate cuts, and tightens dollar liquidity.
Tighter liquidity increases the appeal of dollar assets and suppresses non-yielding assets, so it first drags on $BTC valuations and leveraged longs; if yields continue to rise, BTC is more likely to lose the $80,000 level.
On the other hand, CryptoSlate said BTC later briefly returned to around $79,570, while Ethereum was still up over 24 hours, suggesting this is more like a localized cooldown under a macro shock rather than a broad-based market selloff.
I think this is still a short-term sentiment shock. What really changes the trend will be confirmation around CPI on September 11 and the September 15-16 meeting. If BTC regains a firm footing above $80,000, or if softer inflation causes rate-hike odds to fall back, the bearish view will be invalidated.
$BTC #美联储 #多空数据
