$XAU H4 Weekly Outlook: Demand Rebounds After Nonfarm Data Triggers Selloff
📉 Gold Weekly Recap | After the Nonfarm payrolls hammering, $XAU held the key demand zone; next week wait for CPI/PPI to set the direction
Spot gold closed around 4430 this week. Stronger-than-expected nonfarm data triggered sharp volatility, sending gold tumbling from 4490. The intraday maximum drop exceeded 2%, before price rebounded into the close after retesting the key H4 demand zone.
📌 Nonfarm Key Data
✅ August nonfarm payrolls added 162K jobs, far above the expected 56K
✅ Unemployment rate at 4.1%, hourly earnings +0.3% MoM and +3.1% YoY
✅ June-July data revised up by a combined 55K
✅ Market expectations for a September Fed hike jumped to 62-65%, while a stronger dollar and Treasury yields pressured gold
📌 Key H4 Levels
▪ Current price: 4429.8
▪ Resistance recovery zone: 4430-4460
▪ Preferred long entry demand zone: 4335-4370
▪ Secondary strong support: 4275-4310
▪ Trend resistance: 4500-4525
▪ Upper supply zone: 4600-4635
✅ Trading idea: Do not chase the current rebound. Wait for price to pull back into 4335-4370, then go long after an H4 bullish rejection / liquidity sweep and reclaim / higher low confirmation
Three take-profit targets: 4430-4460 → 4500-4525 → 4600-4635
Immediate invalidation: H4 continues to close below 4335;
Structure fully invalidated: break below 4275
⚠️ Next week focus: 9.10 PPI and 9.11 CPI inflation data will directly influence the September Fed meeting. Macro volatility is extremely strong, and support levels may not necessarily hold.
📉 Gold Weekly Recap | After the Nonfarm payrolls hammering, $XAU held the key demand zone; next week wait for CPI/PPI to set the direction
Spot gold closed around 4430 this week. Stronger-than-expected nonfarm data triggered sharp volatility, sending gold tumbling from 4490. The intraday maximum drop exceeded 2%, before price rebounded into the close after retesting the key H4 demand zone.
📌 Nonfarm Key Data
✅ August nonfarm payrolls added 162K jobs, far above the expected 56K
✅ Unemployment rate at 4.1%, hourly earnings +0.3% MoM and +3.1% YoY
✅ June-July data revised up by a combined 55K
✅ Market expectations for a September Fed hike jumped to 62-65%, while a stronger dollar and Treasury yields pressured gold
📌 Key H4 Levels
▪ Current price: 4429.8
▪ Resistance recovery zone: 4430-4460
▪ Preferred long entry demand zone: 4335-4370
▪ Secondary strong support: 4275-4310
▪ Trend resistance: 4500-4525
▪ Upper supply zone: 4600-4635
✅ Trading idea: Do not chase the current rebound. Wait for price to pull back into 4335-4370, then go long after an H4 bullish rejection / liquidity sweep and reclaim / higher low confirmation
Three take-profit targets: 4430-4460 → 4500-4525 → 4600-4635
Immediate invalidation: H4 continues to close below 4335;
Structure fully invalidated: break below 4275
⚠️ Next week focus: 9.10 PPI and 9.11 CPI inflation data will directly influence the September Fed meeting. Macro volatility is extremely strong, and support levels may not necessarily hold.
