📉 NFP surged: gold hit hard
August Nonfarm Payrolls delivered a major surprise: the economy added 162 thousand jobs versus a consensus forecast of just 56 thousand. The situation was worsened by an upward revision to July data — from -23 thousand to +21 thousand. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
The market reacted immediately:
The probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting jumped from 54% to 61%.
The dollar index rose sharply as the regulator’s hawkish stance strengthened.
$XAUT fell 2% and is testing support around $4437.
Last week, Kevin Warsh openly stated that the labor market already “corresponds to full employment.” Now the Fed hawks have a rock-solid argument for tightening both rhetoric and actions.
Bearish scenario- In the current reality, any attempts to catch falling knives on the long side are temporarily off-limits. If inflation data (CPI/PPI) next week come in above forecasts, a September rate hike will become almost inevitable, and gold prices will head toward $4322 and lower.
August Nonfarm Payrolls delivered a major surprise: the economy added 162 thousand jobs versus a consensus forecast of just 56 thousand. The situation was worsened by an upward revision to July data — from -23 thousand to +21 thousand. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
The market reacted immediately:
The probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting jumped from 54% to 61%.
The dollar index rose sharply as the regulator’s hawkish stance strengthened.
$XAUT fell 2% and is testing support around $4437.
Last week, Kevin Warsh openly stated that the labor market already “corresponds to full employment.” Now the Fed hawks have a rock-solid argument for tightening both rhetoric and actions.
Bearish scenario- In the current reality, any attempts to catch falling knives on the long side are temporarily off-limits. If inflation data (CPI/PPI) next week come in above forecasts, a September rate hike will become almost inevitable, and gold prices will head toward $4322 and lower.
