The storage cycle has entered its second phase and is ending.
Today SanDisk rose 10%, not because the nonfarm payroll data was good, and not because of a new round of confirmation.
Nonfarm came in above expectations, rates are firmer, and gold is falling. Storage rallied against the trend because of an oversold rebound, plus Nvidia buying Hugging Face, which pumped the AI chain again.
Let’s separate the two pricing tracks:
Consumer spot prices have already paused at high levels.
512Gb TLC wafers were still around $2.5 last fall, surged to $23 in March this year, and are still fluctuating around $21. After the second quarter, it is no longer rising every day; there is price but no volume.
Contracts are not dead yet, but the slope has collapsed.
In the first quarter it was roughly +60%; in the second quarter NAND could still rise +70%; in the third quarter expectations have shrunk to only +10% to 15%. Prices are still going up, but only in the final stretch.
Dell’s line, “DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, then NAND, NAND, NAND,” refers to enterprise-grade demand, not Huaqiangbei.
A flat spot market is not enough to declare death; the real turning point is when enterprise long-term orders crack and vendors change price increases to flat or down.
The stock market has already pulled forward and fully discounted the cycle.
SanDisk has risen dozens of times in a year, with a peak of 2354. A gross margin of 80% is a top characteristic, not a steady-state one. After falling 30% from the high and then rebounding for one day, that cannot be treated as evidence that supply has become insufficient again.
So today’s bullish candle feels off.
It is not that the macro outlook has turned bullish; it is sentiment treating the late-stage price increases as if they were the main upward leg again.
$SNDK
Today SanDisk rose 10%, not because the nonfarm payroll data was good, and not because of a new round of confirmation.
Nonfarm came in above expectations, rates are firmer, and gold is falling. Storage rallied against the trend because of an oversold rebound, plus Nvidia buying Hugging Face, which pumped the AI chain again.
Let’s separate the two pricing tracks:
Consumer spot prices have already paused at high levels.
512Gb TLC wafers were still around $2.5 last fall, surged to $23 in March this year, and are still fluctuating around $21. After the second quarter, it is no longer rising every day; there is price but no volume.
Contracts are not dead yet, but the slope has collapsed.
In the first quarter it was roughly +60%; in the second quarter NAND could still rise +70%; in the third quarter expectations have shrunk to only +10% to 15%. Prices are still going up, but only in the final stretch.
Dell’s line, “DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, then NAND, NAND, NAND,” refers to enterprise-grade demand, not Huaqiangbei.
A flat spot market is not enough to declare death; the real turning point is when enterprise long-term orders crack and vendors change price increases to flat or down.
The stock market has already pulled forward and fully discounted the cycle.
SanDisk has risen dozens of times in a year, with a peak of 2354. A gross margin of 80% is a top characteristic, not a steady-state one. After falling 30% from the high and then rebounding for one day, that cannot be treated as evidence that supply has become insufficient again.
So today’s bullish candle feels off.
It is not that the macro outlook has turned bullish; it is sentiment treating the late-stage price increases as if they were the main upward leg again.
$SNDK