Would you dare to buy HOOD at $122?
First, look at the surface: normal digestion after a huge bullish candle.
Yesterday, spot rose 16.57% in a single day, with volume exceeding 51 million shares. The intraday high was 124.88, and perpetuals touched 126 before pulling back. Today it has retreated to around 122, with the 24-hour gain narrowing to about 11%. But from the March low of 64 to now, it has nearly doubled. All moving averages are aligned in a bullish formation, the medium-term trend is clearly upward, but RSI is already overbought, so short-term digestion is needed.
First thing: Wall Street is collectively bullish, but this is not the same as 2021
Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight with a target of 150; Piper Sandler set a target of 145; Scotiabank initiated coverage with a Buy and a target of 136; Deutsche Bank specifically emphasized that prediction markets are the next breakout point.
Sounds like the 2021 ARK/Coinbase vibe? Look closely — this time they are not betting on retail bagholders, but on enterprise-level KPI contracts. The market size could exceed $1 trillion by 2028.
Second thing: the fundamentals are solid enough to be hard to criticize
Here’s the Q2 data:
Revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year
EPS of 0.62, up 48% year over year, beating expectations
Platform assets of $369 billion
Gold subscribers: 4.8 million, up 39% year over year
Net inflows of $75 billion over the past 12 months, annualized growth of 25-28%
13 business lines with annualized revenue above $100 million — from crypto trading to prediction markets, from credit cards to tokenized stocks. It’s no longer the Robinhood that only made commissions from retail options gambling.
Third thing: macro conditions are cooling, and short-term sentiment got a splash of cold water
Today’s August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above the expected 56,000, and the labor force participation rate rebounded. Federal funds futures show the probability of a September FOMC rate hike jumping from 55% to 62%.
What does that mean for HOOD?
High-valuation growth stocks face short-term pressure
But rate hikes also benefit net interest income, since the company holds plenty of customer cash earning interest
Overall, the narrative shifts from a “rate-cut frenzy” to data-dependent volatility
The Goldman Sachs conference on September 9, monthly operating data on September 10, and next week’s CPI/PPI — a dense event window where volatility will only increase
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Light long entries in the 122-120 range, stop loss below 118. First target is a retest of 125, with a breakout target of 130-135
For swing traders:
Wait for a confirmed bounce in the 116-113 area (a lower wick or a strong bullish candle with volume confirmation) before entering, target 125-135, stop loss below 110
With CPI/PPI coming next week, it’s recommended to reduce leverage or set stop-loss orders before the data
If it breaks below 113 on heavy volume, the bullish case weakens, and it’s better to step aside and wait
First, look at the surface: normal digestion after a huge bullish candle.
Yesterday, spot rose 16.57% in a single day, with volume exceeding 51 million shares. The intraday high was 124.88, and perpetuals touched 126 before pulling back. Today it has retreated to around 122, with the 24-hour gain narrowing to about 11%. But from the March low of 64 to now, it has nearly doubled. All moving averages are aligned in a bullish formation, the medium-term trend is clearly upward, but RSI is already overbought, so short-term digestion is needed.
First thing: Wall Street is collectively bullish, but this is not the same as 2021
Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight with a target of 150; Piper Sandler set a target of 145; Scotiabank initiated coverage with a Buy and a target of 136; Deutsche Bank specifically emphasized that prediction markets are the next breakout point.
Sounds like the 2021 ARK/Coinbase vibe? Look closely — this time they are not betting on retail bagholders, but on enterprise-level KPI contracts. The market size could exceed $1 trillion by 2028.
Second thing: the fundamentals are solid enough to be hard to criticize
Here’s the Q2 data:
Revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year
EPS of 0.62, up 48% year over year, beating expectations
Platform assets of $369 billion
Gold subscribers: 4.8 million, up 39% year over year
Net inflows of $75 billion over the past 12 months, annualized growth of 25-28%
13 business lines with annualized revenue above $100 million — from crypto trading to prediction markets, from credit cards to tokenized stocks. It’s no longer the Robinhood that only made commissions from retail options gambling.
Third thing: macro conditions are cooling, and short-term sentiment got a splash of cold water
Today’s August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above the expected 56,000, and the labor force participation rate rebounded. Federal funds futures show the probability of a September FOMC rate hike jumping from 55% to 62%.
What does that mean for HOOD?
High-valuation growth stocks face short-term pressure
But rate hikes also benefit net interest income, since the company holds plenty of customer cash earning interest
Overall, the narrative shifts from a “rate-cut frenzy” to data-dependent volatility
The Goldman Sachs conference on September 9, monthly operating data on September 10, and next week’s CPI/PPI — a dense event window where volatility will only increase
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Light long entries in the 122-120 range, stop loss below 118. First target is a retest of 125, with a breakout target of 130-135
For swing traders:
Wait for a confirmed bounce in the 116-113 area (a lower wick or a strong bullish candle with volume confirmation) before entering, target 125-135, stop loss below 110
With CPI/PPI coming next week, it’s recommended to reduce leverage or set stop-loss orders before the data
If it breaks below 113 on heavy volume, the bullish case weakens, and it’s better to step aside and wait
