U.S. non-farm payroll data came in far above expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added.
Non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the expected 55,000. The June and July figures were revised up by a combined 55,000, showing labor market resilience much stronger than the market’s earlier pessimistic view. The unemployment rate of 4.1% met expectations; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, indicating wage pressure remains relatively tame. CME interest rate futures raised the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September back to 60%; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose, the dollar strengthened, gold sold off sharply, and BTC briefly pulled back to around 79,300.
BTC key levels
‑ Resistance: 83,000-84,000; intraday support: 78,200-78,600; pivot level: 75,200
✅Support logic
1. Wages did not overheat, so a rate hike is not locked in; next Monday’s August CPI will be the decisive data point for the September policy meeting.
2. BTC ETF net inflows remain positive, and the spot institutional base has not been damaged.
⚠️Bearish risks
1. The large upward revisions to employment prove labor market resilience is strong, giving the Fed room to hike rates, extending expectations for elevated rates and pressuring risk asset valuations.
2. Volatility rose on non-farm payroll night; altcoins may pull back more than BTC, increasing the risk of leveraged liquidations in both directions.
Outlook: The non-farm report was slightly hawkish, but wages were neutral, shifting the market focus to CPI. If BTC holds 78,200, the range-bound pattern remains intact; if this level is decisively broken, downside room opens further.
The above is for market information analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
Non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the expected 55,000. The June and July figures were revised up by a combined 55,000, showing labor market resilience much stronger than the market’s earlier pessimistic view. The unemployment rate of 4.1% met expectations; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, indicating wage pressure remains relatively tame. CME interest rate futures raised the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September back to 60%; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose, the dollar strengthened, gold sold off sharply, and BTC briefly pulled back to around 79,300.
BTC key levels
‑ Resistance: 83,000-84,000; intraday support: 78,200-78,600; pivot level: 75,200
✅Support logic
1. Wages did not overheat, so a rate hike is not locked in; next Monday’s August CPI will be the decisive data point for the September policy meeting.
2. BTC ETF net inflows remain positive, and the spot institutional base has not been damaged.
⚠️Bearish risks
1. The large upward revisions to employment prove labor market resilience is strong, giving the Fed room to hike rates, extending expectations for elevated rates and pressuring risk asset valuations.
2. Volatility rose on non-farm payroll night; altcoins may pull back more than BTC, increasing the risk of leveraged liquidations in both directions.
Outlook: The non-farm report was slightly hawkish, but wages were neutral, shifting the market focus to CPI. If BTC holds 78,200, the range-bound pattern remains intact; if this level is decisively broken, downside room opens further.
The above is for market information analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.