September 4 ETH evening analysis
Sure enough, it was Black Friday. I mentioned earlier in the day that on Black Friday we should not be too ambitious. Tonight’s most important bearish factor comes from the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls data. The data showed that 162,000 jobs were added, far above the consensus forecast of 56,000 and also well above July’s revised 23,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, in line with expectations and July’s level.
This strong data provides solid support for the hawkish members of the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike at the policy meeting in less than two weeks, and the probability of a September hike has risen again. The market reacted quickly—the big coin fell about 2% on the news, dropping below $80,000; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.80%, and U.S. stock index futures edged lower.
A week ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, explicitly mentioning the possibility of a September rate hike. Although officials such as Waller gave dovish remarks this week, briefly lowering the probability of a hike to 50%, tonight’s strong jobs data once again added support to the hawkish camp, bringing the rate-hike suspense back.
Rising rate expectations directly weaken the appeal of non-yielding assets. Higher bond yields divert capital, creating systemic pressure on risk assets such as ETH.
At the same time, the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate. On September 3, Iran launched another round of attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Iraq; the U.S. Navy has imposed a maritime blockade on Iran and has intercepted 86 Iran-linked vessels. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude prices close to $97 per barrel. Elevated oil prices are lifting inflation expectations, and when combined with the strong jobs data, they create a "double hit," further reinforcing the logic for a rate hike.#美国8月新增就业16.2万近预期三倍
Sure enough, it was Black Friday. I mentioned earlier in the day that on Black Friday we should not be too ambitious. Tonight’s most important bearish factor comes from the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls data. The data showed that 162,000 jobs were added, far above the consensus forecast of 56,000 and also well above July’s revised 23,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, in line with expectations and July’s level.
This strong data provides solid support for the hawkish members of the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike at the policy meeting in less than two weeks, and the probability of a September hike has risen again. The market reacted quickly—the big coin fell about 2% on the news, dropping below $80,000; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.80%, and U.S. stock index futures edged lower.
A week ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, explicitly mentioning the possibility of a September rate hike. Although officials such as Waller gave dovish remarks this week, briefly lowering the probability of a hike to 50%, tonight’s strong jobs data once again added support to the hawkish camp, bringing the rate-hike suspense back.
Rising rate expectations directly weaken the appeal of non-yielding assets. Higher bond yields divert capital, creating systemic pressure on risk assets such as ETH.
At the same time, the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate. On September 3, Iran launched another round of attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Iraq; the U.S. Navy has imposed a maritime blockade on Iran and has intercepted 86 Iran-linked vessels. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude prices close to $97 per barrel. Elevated oil prices are lifting inflation expectations, and when combined with the strong jobs data, they create a "double hit," further reinforcing the logic for a rate hike.#美国8月新增就业16.2万近预期三倍
