🇺🇸 The American labor market has once again given the Fed reasons not to rush.
In August, the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs versus the expected 55,000. After July’s -23,000, that looks especially stark.
Unemployment remained at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% m/m — exactly in line with the forecast.
So the main surprise here is not in wages, but in employment. The labor market turned out to be much stronger than expected.
For the Fed, this is an argument in favor of caution when cutting rates. And for crypto, the problem is simple: the longer rates stay high, the fewer reasons the market has to celebrate cheap money.
But I wouldn’t write “strong NFP = Bitcoin drops.” Macro doesn’t work like a button.
I’ve already seen one labor market indicator being turned into a ready-made forecast for BTC. First we look at how yields, the dollar, and Fed expectations react — and only then do we draw conclusions. If you’re also interested in understanding the reasons rather than chasing headlines, subscribe to @MoonMan567
In August, the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs versus the expected 55,000. After July’s -23,000, that looks especially stark.
Unemployment remained at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% m/m — exactly in line with the forecast.
So the main surprise here is not in wages, but in employment. The labor market turned out to be much stronger than expected.
For the Fed, this is an argument in favor of caution when cutting rates. And for crypto, the problem is simple: the longer rates stay high, the fewer reasons the market has to celebrate cheap money.
But I wouldn’t write “strong NFP = Bitcoin drops.” Macro doesn’t work like a button.
I’ve already seen one labor market indicator being turned into a ready-made forecast for BTC. First we look at how yields, the dollar, and Fed expectations react — and only then do we draw conclusions. If you’re also interested in understanding the reasons rather than chasing headlines, subscribe to @MoonMan567
