In our previous market analyses, we’ve mentioned more than once that because each coin’s size and cycle trends have their own ideas, the recent price action is inevitably complex and changeable. We’ve also repeatedly said that the battle around 82,000 would likely be quite long-lasting. Even if BTC stays strong, the possibility of breaking through this level in one go is very low.
Last night, under the stimulus of news that the U.S. Federal Reserve might not raise rates in September, BTC was pulled up directly from the pivot point where it had just broken down, and after setting a new high at 82,300, it started to retreat again—once more confirming our control over the entire market!
Since it has made a new high here, it can be seen as the tail end continuation of this round of uptrend not yet finished. Why call it the tail end? Because from the very start of this move, the行情 was extremely fierce and relentless—so to have any possibility of a top, at least a daily-chart-level divergence must appear.
The drop from the early-morning new high has already confirmed multiple divergences on the 4-hour timeframe, and it has also started to form a top divergence pattern on the 8-hour and daily charts. It can only be said that resistance is growing stronger here, and the probability of starting a decent pullback is increasing.
Right now, the Big Pie’s (BTC’s) position is still consolidating near the highs. It’s not ruled out that it could push up again to set a new high. Personally, however, I’m still more conservative. Unless the daily chart can effectively hold above 83,300, we won’t adjust our view based on the market action. Until then, our expectation of a correction within the 73,000 to 75,000 range remains unchanged!
There’s non-farm payroll data tonight. Everyone should watch for market volatility. At this point, it’s not recommended to chase higher prices—be cautious and focus on prudent execution!
The biggest suspense this month will be whether the CLARITY Act gets passed. The Senate will reconvene on September 14, and September 15 is the key test date. Based on the latest situation, Senator John Thune will initiate a cloture vote (a vote to end debate), which requires 60 votes to move forward. Currently, there are missing votes from several Democrats—there are only 11 days left. It would require renegotiation plus approval by both chambers, and the timeline is extremely tight. Therefore, it’s still quite difficult for the bill to pass.
Blame it on nothing else but that Trump’s family made $1.4 billion from digital currency. The Democrats are demanding the inclusion of an ethics clause (limiting the president from profiting from cryptocurrencies). The Republicans refuse, which leads the Democrats to be unwilling to cooperate.
The world really is a huge patchwork operation. No matter what happens, everyone should prepare psychologically in advance for potential shocks. September is destined to be eventful. Above all, avoid impulsive trading!
Situation: The community has already exited 20% of the position in spot holdings. There are still 40%. As BTC continues to rise, continue taking profit in batches.