Z O N E P R I M E

Underestimated Risks in the U.S. Midterm Elections?

The market is seriously underestimating the risk that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could be challenged, triggering political and legal disputes. At the same time, hedging costs on Wall Street have fallen to their lowest level of the year, and the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options for November has dropped below 15%, creating a low-cost window to buy protection early.

The probability that the election results could be disputed, or even spark political turmoil, is being severely underestimated by the market, and current pricing in the options market does not fully reflect this tail risk.

As the market calmed in August, the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options has fallen significantly from its July highs. The calmer the market, the cheaper protection becomes; but once election risk is truly priced into assets, volatility could rise rapidly, and the cost of hedging at that point would increase markedly.

The core logic is built on the current polling situation. Polls generally show Trump’s approval rating slipping, Democrats likely to regain control of the House, and Republicans expected to keep their Senate majority.

What the market is truly overlooking is not the election result itself, but the political and legal disputes that could emerge if the result is challenged. If the final outcome is unfavorable to Trump, the market is severely underestimating the likelihood that Trump would react strongly and challenge results in certain districts.

In that scenario, Trump may launch legal challenges to every “contested” district, delaying the certification process and triggering a wave of media coverage around disputes such as “what happens next” and claims that the election was “stolen.”

This political uncertainty could ultimately spill over into financial markets and drive volatility sharply higher. For markets, the most dangerous outcome is not necessarily that one side wins, but that the election result remains unconfirmed for an extended period, creating persistent uncertainty.

### 🚀 ETH Market Watch

**$ETH is showing strong recovery momentum! 🔥**

Ethereum has been showing strong buyer interest, but the **$2,500–$2,560 zone** remains an important area to watch. If ETH breaks above this resistance with strong volume, bullish momentum could accelerate. 📈

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However, crypto remains highly volatile, so confirmation and trading volume are key before chasing a breakout. 👀

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ETH → Breakout 📈 or Rejection ⚠️

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ZEC surged 13% against the trend, Dash shot up 40%—what’s behind this explosive rally?

There’s an interesting signal behind this: when mainstream coins become more uncertain, funds start looking for "edge narratives" again.

ZEC’s privacy narrative and Dash’s payment concept are both old stories, but during periods when Bitcoin is moving sideways and adjusting, they become a playground for short-term capital.

What’s worth noting is that this short-term money comes fast and leaves fast. Snacks may be tasty, but they can’t replace a meal. Once Bitcoin makes its direction clear, these funds will run faster than anyone.

I also put together a list of <five edge-sector coins that are still quietly rising> along with their rally logic and risk points, so you don’t have to step on the same traps yourself. You can come to my profile chat room to get it—just send the two words (list).
#ZEC续刷历史新高 #DASH

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$ZEC This explosive pump directly pushed it to 1050. On the surface, it looked lively, but in essence it was a typical speculative theme rally combined with concentrated capital-driven price support, with nothing to do with fundamentals.
Many on-chain holdings didn’t even have time to rotate, and it was simply major funds forcefully pushing the price up at relatively low cost in a market with shallow liquidity.
The most dangerous part of this kind of price action is that the token structure is extremely fragile. Once large holders decide to begin distributing liquidity in stages at high levels, the order book, lacking genuine buying support at the bottom, can be broken through instantly.
Looking back at $ZEC ’s past token distribution history, when the dump came, it never gave retail traders time to hesitate. There was once a brutal scene where it cascaded all the way down from 750 to 150 without any dumping turnover, wiping out 50% of floating profit in a single day.
Structurally, the upper range from 1080 to 1120 is a dense overhead supply zone where bullish holdings were previously exhausted, while the short-term downside test buffer lies in the 980 to 1000 area.
What truly determines whether this liquidity premium can continue is the key dense accumulation zone around 920.
If the price loses 920, it means profit-taking and trapped positions from the entire rally will trigger a stampede of selling, and this fund-driven impulse move will be completely over.
#zec续刷历史新高

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Today's market news summary is as follows:

Macro and Federal Reserve Policy Game

Interest rate expectations keep shifting: Statements from Federal Reserve officials, along with recent stronger-than-expected employment/inflation data, have led the market to debate the policy path for the September FOMC meeting. Some institutions, including Citi, have pushed back their rate-cut expectations, and macro wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.
Leverage unwinding and liquidations: After Bitcoin surged to $80,000 and then pulled back to consolidate in the $76,000–$79,000 range, it triggered hundreds of millions of dollars in long liquidations in the derivatives market.

Capital Flows and Sector Performance

Spot funds and stablecoins: Although the broader market weakened in the short term, spot ETF inflows still remained relatively stable; meanwhile, the total stablecoin market cap edged up above $291 billion, indicating a short-term risk-off stance.
Local outperformance and rotation: While the broader market was in a correction, some legacy tokens (such as Dash) posted significant single-day gains, and capital rotation between sectors accelerated.

Ecosystem and Protocol Updates

Stargate / LayerZero upgrade: Stargate announced that it will shut down its V1 liquidity pools, in coordination with the retirement of LayerZero V1 components, reminding users to withdraw funds with zero fees.
Ondo Finance adjustment: Ondo announced that it will stop minting USDY on the Aptos and Noble chains, directing holders to redeem or migrate their assets.
Security and compliance risks: A GoMining-related wallet suffered a hacker attack of about $2.8 million, and incidents such as social media executives’ accounts being compromised to promote fake tokens have raised market security vigilance.
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