US Non-Farm hits tonight—expect big volatility in the market
At 20:30 tonight, the Non-Farm Employment Report will land with major impact, with expectations for an additional 56,000 jobs. The Non-Farm turned negative in July, and the ADP data came as a surprise. So tonight’s figures have a lot of variables.
Let’s start with the conclusion and consequences:
Strong data → rate-hike expectations rise; BTC faces pressure and moves downward;
Weak data → rate-cut expectations heat up; the market sees a rebound.
But!!!
Tonight’s Non-Farm is very likely to come in below expectations. Here are two reasons:
1. In recent ADP “mini Non-Farm” releases, the data already disappointed. After March, ADP and Non-Farm trends have been highly synchronized, making it a strong reference;
1. On top of that, the expiration of Haiti-related status for 350,000 people will further suppress the employment statistics. Even Bank of America’s forecast is far below the market’s expectation of 56,000.
If the data turns out weak, it will amplify rate-cut expectations, which is good for risk assets.
At that time, BTC and ETH upside will become the new ceiling! BTC above 83,000 and ETH above 2,600—won’t be much of a question anymore.
Pure personal judgment—don’t directly go all-in to trade this. Brothers, it’s better to wait for the data to land first, then follow the move.
$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 #CLARITY法案面临延迟参议院减少8个投票日
At 20:30 tonight, the Non-Farm Employment Report will land with major impact, with expectations for an additional 56,000 jobs. The Non-Farm turned negative in July, and the ADP data came as a surprise. So tonight’s figures have a lot of variables.
Let’s start with the conclusion and consequences:
Strong data → rate-hike expectations rise; BTC faces pressure and moves downward;
Weak data → rate-cut expectations heat up; the market sees a rebound.
But!!!
Tonight’s Non-Farm is very likely to come in below expectations. Here are two reasons:
1. In recent ADP “mini Non-Farm” releases, the data already disappointed. After March, ADP and Non-Farm trends have been highly synchronized, making it a strong reference;
1. On top of that, the expiration of Haiti-related status for 350,000 people will further suppress the employment statistics. Even Bank of America’s forecast is far below the market’s expectation of 56,000.
If the data turns out weak, it will amplify rate-cut expectations, which is good for risk assets.
At that time, BTC and ETH upside will become the new ceiling! BTC above 83,000 and ETH above 2,600—won’t be much of a question anymore.
Pure personal judgment—don’t directly go all-in to trade this. Brothers, it’s better to wait for the data to land first, then follow the move.
$BTC $ETH $NVDAB #美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万 #CLARITY法案面临延迟参议院减少8个投票日
