Waller: August inflation will determine whether the Fed hikes in September
As a voting member of the Federal Reserve, Waller’s remarks on September 3 directly set August CPI (to be released on September 11) up as the key “decider” for the September FOMC meeting. This is a typical data-dependent, swing-hawk stance.
Key original quotes (translated)
1. If August inflation continues to cool and sustains the momentum of July’s decline, I lean toward keeping the policy rate unchanged in September.
2. If inflation rebounds and improvement proves to be only a temporary blip, I would support a 25 bp rate hike in September. It wouldn’t require a big surge in inflation—just a modest uptick would be enough to push me toward tightening.
3. Current rates are only “slightly restraining overall demand.” Inflation is still a long way from the 2% target, and it’s not out of the question that additional hikes may be needed later.
Market reaction
The moment Waller spoke, market expectations swung quickly: the probability of a September rate hike fell from around 60% to near 50%. U.S. Treasury yields declined, while U.S. stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies all rallied in tandem.
$BTC $ETH #美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
As a voting member of the Federal Reserve, Waller’s remarks on September 3 directly set August CPI (to be released on September 11) up as the key “decider” for the September FOMC meeting. This is a typical data-dependent, swing-hawk stance.
Key original quotes (translated)
1. If August inflation continues to cool and sustains the momentum of July’s decline, I lean toward keeping the policy rate unchanged in September.
2. If inflation rebounds and improvement proves to be only a temporary blip, I would support a 25 bp rate hike in September. It wouldn’t require a big surge in inflation—just a modest uptick would be enough to push me toward tightening.
3. Current rates are only “slightly restraining overall demand.” Inflation is still a long way from the 2% target, and it’s not out of the question that additional hikes may be needed later.
Market reaction
The moment Waller spoke, market expectations swung quickly: the probability of a September rate hike fell from around 60% to near 50%. U.S. Treasury yields declined, while U.S. stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies all rallied in tandem.
$BTC $ETH #美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
