A strategy can be profitable on average and still have poor payoff timing.
Consider two systems that both return 15% annually.
Strategy A realizes small gains consistently throughout the year.
Strategy B produces almost nothing for months, then depends on a few large moves to generate most of its return.
Same annual result.
Very different capital requirements.
The second strategy requires greater patience, liquidity reserves, and confidence that capital can remain committed while appearing unproductive.
Keeping predictable friction controlled helps. For eligible new users, CODE2026 can reduce qualifying Binance Spot trading fees by 20%.
But fee efficiency cannot solve a mismatch between a strategy’s payoff schedule and the investor’s capital needs.
This is why expected return should never be evaluated without asking when that return is expected to arrive.
Returns have a size. They also have a schedule.
A strategy is only investable if your capital can survive the waiting period between the two.
Consider two systems that both return 15% annually.
Strategy A realizes small gains consistently throughout the year.
Strategy B produces almost nothing for months, then depends on a few large moves to generate most of its return.
Same annual result.
Very different capital requirements.
The second strategy requires greater patience, liquidity reserves, and confidence that capital can remain committed while appearing unproductive.
Keeping predictable friction controlled helps. For eligible new users, CODE2026 can reduce qualifying Binance Spot trading fees by 20%.
But fee efficiency cannot solve a mismatch between a strategy’s payoff schedule and the investor’s capital needs.
This is why expected return should never be evaluated without asking when that return is expected to arrive.
Returns have a size. They also have a schedule.
A strategy is only investable if your capital can survive the waiting period between the two.