On Tuesday, 1 September, the crypto asset market rose 0.87% and is now trading near US$2.64 trillion. The TOTAL ticker is now recording positive performance for two days in a row, after yesterday’s losses quickly reversed following Trump’s rejection of extreme measures.
But this round of buying came from a more limited source than last week’s.
1. Bitcoin ETF Series Interrupted, Three Others Continue
On 28 August, Bitcoin funds ended a nine-day streak of inflows with an outflow of US$201.81 million. However, buyers did not leave this asset class; they simply shifted.
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The Ethereum fund received US$102.18 million in the same session, extending its positive streak to ten straight days, and Wall Street funds have indeed favored Ethereum over the past two weeks. On the same day, XRP added US$26.20 million and Solana US$18.08 million. Both continued their positive streaks for up to ten sessions through August 31. With institutions favoring altcoins over Bitcoin, the ‘altcoin season’ narrative appears to be growing stronger.
The market is indeed up, but it has not proven anything yet. Almost every candle since August 21 has closed with a long upper wick, indicating that sellers continue to cap every push to higher levels.
There has been no significant change until the total market cap breaks above US$2.71 trillion. Below that, US$2.54 trillion is an important level because if it is breached, the market cap could quickly fall to US$2.43 trillion.
Streak Broken: Bitcoin ETFs See US$201.81 Million in Outflows on August 28
Quiet Winners: XRP, ETH, and Solana ETF Streaks Continue Unbroken
Scoreboard Unchanged: BTC Dominance at 60.11%, Up 1.87% in a Month
2. Trump Rejects Nuclear Action Against Iran
The second reason is just a short answer. When asked in the Oval Office on Monday about the possible use of nuclear weapons against Iran, President Trump said he did not intend to, although his administration was still considering limited strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.
That move removed the worst-case scenario without resolving the conflict, and oil prices reflect that condition. Brent traded near US$88.90 — around 12% above its yearly average, a few weeks after Iran denied any Hormuz deal. Crude oil prices have indeed fallen from panic levels, but they have not yet returned to normal. The war premium is still in the market.
Constraint Lifted: Trump Rejects Nuclear Escalation
Conflict Continues: Attacks in Hormuz Remain an Option
Oil Price Agrees: Brent Nears US$88.90, 12% Above Its One-Year Average
Coin Spotlight: Arbitrum ARBUSD
Arbitrum ARBUSD rose 31.3%, and there is a specific reason making it today’s crypto market leader. Robinhood Chain, which runs on the Arbitrum stack, set a record volume and pushed daily decentralized exchange transaction volume to US$1.49 billion on August 31, according to DefiLlama. Throughout history, only three days have seen daily volume exceed US$1 billion, and all of them happened in the last three days.
This is important for ARB holders because 10% of Orbit chain transaction fees (a custom Arbitrum chain) flow back to Arbitrum, with 8% going into the token holders’ treasury. Higher volume means more revenue flowing to the chain.
There are two warnings behind this move. These two-day candles have traded 362.08 million ARB, making them the busiest since February, while on February 19 and 20, 386.68 million were traded at a price 15.2% lower. A bigger move with fewer tokens means fewer holders are involved.
These candles also have long upper wicks, suggesting sellers have already been waiting overhead. ARB has been in a downtrend since May 9, and it would take a two-day close above US$0.119 with higher volume than in February to reverse that direction. If ARB loses US$0.101, the price could head toward US$0.071, down 36% from current levels.
