JPMorgan Investment Bank revised its assessment of Kazatomprom’s shares. Although the target price moved slightly—from $90 to $91—the recommendation was changed from “hold” (neutral) to “buy” (overweight).
“The results for the first half of 2026 generally matched our forecasts, and, as we had initially expected, Kazatomprom revised its financial outlook for fiscal year 2026—in terms of revenue (downward) and expenses and capital expenditures (upward)—amid the strengthening of the tenge against the US dollar, as well as rising prices for sulfuric acid and other cost increases. Now that this uncertainty has been resolved, and after consensus forecasts were adjusted, we see a clear path to future profit growth, because we expect the negative impact of costs to start easing next year,” analysts at J.P. Morgan write. In their view, conditions in the raw materials market also remain favorable, as spot uranium prices have not yet caught up with the rising forward prices amid sustained demand. Experts believe the company will be able to benefit from these positive trends thanks to its inventories, low costs, strong balance sheet, and good supply management.
At the same time, the review notes that Kazatomprom’s activities could be indirectly affected if political tensions between the United States and Russia intensify, since the company has three joint ventures with
by the Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom (through Uranium One), accounting for more than 30% of the share of Kazatomprom’s uranium mining volume.
J.P. Morgan analysts believe that because of a difficult start to the year, the company’s valuation (EV) relative to operating profit (EBITDA) for 2026 will rise to 10.5, but in the following two years it will fall to 6.3 and 5.3, respectively—more typical for it in recent times.
J.P. Morgan last revised its valuation of Kazatomprom on May 8. At that time, the bank reduced its stock recommendation from “buy” to “hold,” and since then the shares had been on the list of “watch for possible negative catalysts” until the release of the first-half 2026 results.
Context
At the end of July, Kazatomprom published its half-year report, reporting a 1% decline in sales across the group compared with the same period of 2025, to 7.59 thousand tonnes. According to the consolidated IFRS reporting for the first half, revenue increased by 9% year on year to 717.83 billion tenge ($1.5 billion), while net profit fell by 9% to 240.43 billion tenge ($494.9 million). .
Kazatomprom’s depositary receipts on the London Stock Exchange, which at the end of April had reached $93.8, fell to $62.5 by the end of July. Then the rebound resumed, and on 03.09.26, at the close, the paper was worth $75.7—up 4.99% over the day alone. On KASE on 03.09.26, Kazatomprom shares rose to 33,899.9 tenge, up 1.2% from the previous close.
In late August, Bank of America raised the target price for Kazatomprom depositary receipts from $93 to $94, as its experts since spring have been expecting uranium prices to rise to $130 per pound. Uranium prices have been in the $85–87 range since early March, but from the end of July they began to climb and by the time of publication reached $89.5 per pound.
Morgan Stanley analysts are less optimistic and, in a review from the same time, left the target price at $83—however they retained the “buy” recommendation.
Finally, UBS experts decided to lower the target price from $88 to $86, but they also did not remove the “buy” recommendation.
NAC Kazatomprom provides about 40% of the world uranium production volume; all deposits are located in Kazakhstan. The company is controlled by the state, and 25% of the shares are in free float.