No.11 | Cycle: RECOVERY (Confidence: high) | Alpha: +0.8750
In August, spot ETF net inflows of $3.5B—an all-time high for the past year—boosted buyer momentum as Vector Signal strengthened a Risk-On stance. However, BTC remains constrained by long-term cost basis bands and the dense liquidation cluster area; it has not yet broken through the key range needed to enter BULL recovery.
Key signals:
1. [institutional] Spot ETF monthly inflow: Net inflows of about $3.5B in August, the strongest monthly inflow since July 2025
2. [macro] BTC Vector Signal: This signal previously precisely marked the $126K top and warned of Risk-Off; BTC then pulled back 54%. After BTC broke above $70K, it flipped bullish and is currently Risk-On again.
3. [onchain] Overhead cost-basis band constraints: BTC is stalled between the lower band and the nearby overhead supply; two distinct cost-basis bands clearly define the current trading range.
4. [derivatives] Liquidation clusters converge with the breakeven band: The cost-basis band aligns closely with liquidation pain points, and the range boundaries form strong resonance support/resistance
In August, spot ETF net inflows of $3.5B—an all-time high for the past year—boosted buyer momentum as Vector Signal strengthened a Risk-On stance. However, BTC remains constrained by long-term cost basis bands and the dense liquidation cluster area; it has not yet broken through the key range needed to enter BULL recovery.
Key signals:
1. [institutional] Spot ETF monthly inflow: Net inflows of about $3.5B in August, the strongest monthly inflow since July 2025
2. [macro] BTC Vector Signal: This signal previously precisely marked the $126K top and warned of Risk-Off; BTC then pulled back 54%. After BTC broke above $70K, it flipped bullish and is currently Risk-On again.
3. [onchain] Overhead cost-basis band constraints: BTC is stalled between the lower band and the nearby overhead supply; two distinct cost-basis bands clearly define the current trading range.
4. [derivatives] Liquidation clusters converge with the breakeven band: The cost-basis band aligns closely with liquidation pain points, and the range boundaries form strong resonance support/resistance