The Fed isn’t cutting rates this time—it's a “temporary hold”
Governor Waller signaled that if inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, he could support keeping rates unchanged in September. The market immediately revised its expectations: the odds of a September rate hike fell from around 60% to roughly 50%. US stocks rebounded, and Bitcoin also pushed up from the 77,000 range.
The logic chain is short:
Rate expectations ease → pressure on the US dollar and Treasuries decreases → risk assets can breathe again.
US stocks react first, and crypto is priced next. Both markets are trading the same sentence: will liquidity be withdrawn right away? But don’t mistake a “held course” for a complete shift toward easing. Oil prices are still elevated, geopolitical risks haven’t gone away, and September—by itself—is the month with the highest event density. Today’s NFP, then the CPI, and afterward the policy meeting—any piece of data can reset yesterday’s pricing.
What the dovish message provides is a window $BTC
Governor Waller signaled that if inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, he could support keeping rates unchanged in September. The market immediately revised its expectations: the odds of a September rate hike fell from around 60% to roughly 50%. US stocks rebounded, and Bitcoin also pushed up from the 77,000 range.
The logic chain is short:
Rate expectations ease → pressure on the US dollar and Treasuries decreases → risk assets can breathe again.
US stocks react first, and crypto is priced next. Both markets are trading the same sentence: will liquidity be withdrawn right away? But don’t mistake a “held course” for a complete shift toward easing. Oil prices are still elevated, geopolitical risks haven’t gone away, and September—by itself—is the month with the highest event density. Today’s NFP, then the CPI, and afterward the policy meeting—any piece of data can reset yesterday’s pricing.
What the dovish message provides is a window $BTC