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生蚝哥Oyster
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BullishTonight’s big news: the US August nonfarm payrolls report is about to be released
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August nonfarm data tonight. Market expectations are for 60,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Current US employment shows a stable but weak pattern. Even if jobs weaken, it may not necessarily push the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Inflation remains the top policy priority.
JPMorgan offers scenario-based projections:
✅ New jobs > 95,000: S&P 500 could fall by 0.5%–1.25%
✅ New jobs 50,000–350,000: S&P 500 could rise by 0.25%–0.75%
This nonfarm report is a key reference before the September FOMC meeting, directly stirring up expectations for Fed policy and near-term moves in US stocks.
Worth noting: recent Fed officials’ messaging. Bostic said employment is “stable,” while Waller described employment as “satisfactory.” This doesn’t mean jobs are strong—rather, with inflation not yet clearly easing, the Fed still keeps the option to raise rates, aiming to minimize the impact on employment.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August nonfarm data tonight. Market expectations are for 60,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Current US employment shows a stable but weak pattern. Even if jobs weaken, it may not necessarily push the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Inflation remains the top policy priority.
JPMorgan offers scenario-based projections:
✅ New jobs > 95,000: S&P 500 could fall by 0.5%–1.25%
✅ New jobs 50,000–350,000: S&P 500 could rise by 0.25%–0.75%
This nonfarm report is a key reference before the September FOMC meeting, directly stirring up expectations for Fed policy and near-term moves in US stocks.
Worth noting: recent Fed officials’ messaging. Bostic said employment is “stable,” while Waller described employment as “satisfactory.” This doesn’t mean jobs are strong—rather, with inflation not yet clearly easing, the Fed still keeps the option to raise rates, aiming to minimize the impact on employment.
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