#美国8月ism服务业指数升至55.4 Waller in one sentence: US stocks rise, rate-hike odds fall, and the world lets out a breath of relief
The S&P 500 rose 1.06%, the Dow jumped 1.18%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.40%. The VIX fell to 14.32, and US Treasury yields also retreated—10-year yields back near 4.77%.
The core reason is just one: Fed Governor Waller has “gone along.”
Waller said that recent data finally show signs of inflation easing; if the next two weeks of data continues this trend, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September.
Just that one remark: the probability of a September rate hike dropped straight from 63% to 52%.
US stocks are up, Treasury yields are up as well, and gold is also up.
But don’t celebrate yet—it's not that clean in the data.
The US August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, a six-month high. The prices-paid index also surged to 72.6, the highest since August 2022. What does that mean? Higher energy prices are feeding through to the services sector across the board; inflation pressure hasn’t fully stopped.
Waller’s point was “if the data continues the trend”—that “if” needs a question mark.
And there’s more: big moves in the AI space.
Nvidia will acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion—the largest single deal in history. Huang Renxun said the platform will remain open, with no forcing of Nvidia hardware. On the surface it’s buying a platform; in essence, it’s taking control of the ecosystem—one of the core nodes in the open-source AI community.
On the same day, OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, claiming 100,000 GPUs for training, with network security capabilities first reaching a “critical” level. Then ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok all went down together for nearly 4 hours. Capabilities are improving, but basic infrastructure stability is lagging—this is so very AI.
On the macro front, there’s another detail: the US July trade deficit widened 24.4% to $88.6 billion. The AI infrastructure boom is driving imports of computer parts to an all-time high. AI has moved from company financial statements to macroeconomic data—chips, servers, and data-center equipment are reshaping America’s trade landscape.
Tonight’s most critical: the August Nonfarm Payrolls data.
ADP added only 38,000 jobs, while ISM Services points to expansion—two datasets pointing in different directions. Tonight is the last employment report before the September FOMC, and it’s the key test of whether Waller’s “inflation is easing” thesis can be sustained.
The market is currently pricing in expectations of a pause in rate hikes, but that trade hinges on whether the data over the next two weeks holds up. If it holds, rates stay put in September. If it doesn’t, everything gets reset.
Want to know how to position yourself after the Nonfarm Payrolls data comes out? Let’s talk.
The S&P 500 rose 1.06%, the Dow jumped 1.18%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.40%. The VIX fell to 14.32, and US Treasury yields also retreated—10-year yields back near 4.77%.
The core reason is just one: Fed Governor Waller has “gone along.”
Waller said that recent data finally show signs of inflation easing; if the next two weeks of data continues this trend, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September.
Just that one remark: the probability of a September rate hike dropped straight from 63% to 52%.
US stocks are up, Treasury yields are up as well, and gold is also up.
But don’t celebrate yet—it's not that clean in the data.
The US August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, a six-month high. The prices-paid index also surged to 72.6, the highest since August 2022. What does that mean? Higher energy prices are feeding through to the services sector across the board; inflation pressure hasn’t fully stopped.
Waller’s point was “if the data continues the trend”—that “if” needs a question mark.
And there’s more: big moves in the AI space.
Nvidia will acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion—the largest single deal in history. Huang Renxun said the platform will remain open, with no forcing of Nvidia hardware. On the surface it’s buying a platform; in essence, it’s taking control of the ecosystem—one of the core nodes in the open-source AI community.
On the same day, OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, claiming 100,000 GPUs for training, with network security capabilities first reaching a “critical” level. Then ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok all went down together for nearly 4 hours. Capabilities are improving, but basic infrastructure stability is lagging—this is so very AI.
On the macro front, there’s another detail: the US July trade deficit widened 24.4% to $88.6 billion. The AI infrastructure boom is driving imports of computer parts to an all-time high. AI has moved from company financial statements to macroeconomic data—chips, servers, and data-center equipment are reshaping America’s trade landscape.
Tonight’s most critical: the August Nonfarm Payrolls data.
ADP added only 38,000 jobs, while ISM Services points to expansion—two datasets pointing in different directions. Tonight is the last employment report before the September FOMC, and it’s the key test of whether Waller’s “inflation is easing” thesis can be sustained.
The market is currently pricing in expectations of a pause in rate hikes, but that trade hinges on whether the data over the next two weeks holds up. If it holds, rates stay put in September. If it doesn’t, everything gets reset.
Want to know how to position yourself after the Nonfarm Payrolls data comes out? Let’s talk.
