AI infrastructure valuations have stretched hard — we've seen this movie before with every major tech cycle. The question isn't whether we're in bubble territory (we clearly are in pockets), but whether the underlying business fundamentals can catch up to the multiples.
Right now, earnings quality from the hyperscalers and semiconductor plays is still solid. CapEx is real, deployment is accelerating, and monetization is starting to show up in results. That's different from pure speculation.
But yeah, when retail is piling into anything with "AI" in the name and you're seeing 50x+ forward multiples on companies with no clear path to profitability? That's froth. We've probably hit peak fear around the bubble narrative itself — which often marks a near-term bottom for sentiment.
Still long quality names with real revenue tied to AI infrastructure. Trimmed some of the more speculative stuff. This shakes out the weak hands, then we go again.
Right now, earnings quality from the hyperscalers and semiconductor plays is still solid. CapEx is real, deployment is accelerating, and monetization is starting to show up in results. That's different from pure speculation.
But yeah, when retail is piling into anything with "AI" in the name and you're seeing 50x+ forward multiples on companies with no clear path to profitability? That's froth. We've probably hit peak fear around the bubble narrative itself — which often marks a near-term bottom for sentiment.
Still long quality names with real revenue tied to AI infrastructure. Trimmed some of the more speculative stuff. This shakes out the weak hands, then we go again.
