ARB rose for seven days by nearly half—real money is coming in. Spot has net inflowed $35 million over the past three hours, with all three-hour segments in the period net buying. But this morning at 9:00 the hourly candle changed the whole flavor: after touching a high of 0.1468, it printed a large bearish candle—$22.68 million is the biggest volume among the six hourly candles. Price was smashed down hard from 0.1454 to 0.1368. Even the latest 15-minute spot has flipped to a net outflow of $4.3 million.
On the contract side, it’s even more straightforward: passive buy orders make up only 42.5%, and the taker-side disagreement directly marked a distribution. Whale accounts show longs up 5.2% over a 7-hour period, yet the proportion of longs within their real deposited positions fell by 6.85%—more accounts, smaller positions, like splitting orders to reduce exposure. The leverage momentum is also being pulled back: margin borrow amount collapsed 80% over 12 hours, and the spot leverage long/short ratio was cut by 41%. The fuel that previously pushed price from 0.083 up to 0.147 is being drained.
This trade is a short. Enter near the 0.14 moving-average resistance. First target is 0.1225; if that breaks, look for 0.104. The four-hour trend still has “UP” stamped on it—this isn’t a trend-following long, it’s抢派发单 (snatching distribution). So the stop-loss has to be firm: as long as it reclaims 0.1468 with increasing volume, active buy orders return to above half, and the funding/fee rate turns from negative to positive—force the squeeze to restart. Then flip directly to the other side. #arb $ARB
On the contract side, it’s even more straightforward: passive buy orders make up only 42.5%, and the taker-side disagreement directly marked a distribution. Whale accounts show longs up 5.2% over a 7-hour period, yet the proportion of longs within their real deposited positions fell by 6.85%—more accounts, smaller positions, like splitting orders to reduce exposure. The leverage momentum is also being pulled back: margin borrow amount collapsed 80% over 12 hours, and the spot leverage long/short ratio was cut by 41%. The fuel that previously pushed price from 0.083 up to 0.147 is being drained.
This trade is a short. Enter near the 0.14 moving-average resistance. First target is 0.1225; if that breaks, look for 0.104. The four-hour trend still has “UP” stamped on it—this isn’t a trend-following long, it’s抢派发单 (snatching distribution). So the stop-loss has to be firm: as long as it reclaims 0.1468 with increasing volume, active buy orders return to above half, and the funding/fee rate turns from negative to positive—force the squeeze to restart. Then flip directly to the other side. #arb $ARB
