$ARB In this 15 minutes, it directly took down 5.8%. Volume surged to more than 3 times, and at the close it even broke below the lows of 20 five-minute candlesticks.
But interestingly, the open interest is actually shrinking. Over the course of more than an hour, the contract notional dropped by nearly 2 million U. This doesn’t look like shorts moving in to smash the price—it looks more like longs cutting losses to deleverage.
Passive selling has an overwhelming advantage; the buy/sell ratio is 0.74. The drop is pretty solid.
Objectively speaking, with OI down to the 99.6% abnormal percentile—third in the entire pool—this kind of position is either the tail end of a panic or just the very start of a trend accelerating. In any case, the cost-effectiveness of catching the falling knife right now isn’t great.
But interestingly, the open interest is actually shrinking. Over the course of more than an hour, the contract notional dropped by nearly 2 million U. This doesn’t look like shorts moving in to smash the price—it looks more like longs cutting losses to deleverage.
Passive selling has an overwhelming advantage; the buy/sell ratio is 0.74. The drop is pretty solid.
Objectively speaking, with OI down to the 99.6% abnormal percentile—third in the entire pool—this kind of position is either the tail end of a panic or just the very start of a trend accelerating. In any case, the cost-effectiveness of catching the falling knife right now isn’t great.