```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 4
Warsh era’s first central bank week kick-off: **dove vs. eagle showdown** — Bowman testifies + CCAR stress test hit the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies to Congress — Reiterates bank capital / regulatory framework; risks for assets sensitive to hawkishness
2. Next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress test — Big banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%; a breach of thresholds hits bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 delay carryover for the weekly report release (7 items including H.4.1) — Temporary disruption to US Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Key numbers
Rate 3.50–3.75% · Hold ~95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 additional hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
SEP terminal rate revised up + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and US Treasury yields stronger; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s remarks at 22:00—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy/anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— The following are details for reference ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | cut 25 | hold | hike 25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| --------------| ------------------------------- | ------ |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA talk | 🟡 Mid |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑ See “What to watch today” |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑ See “What to watch today” |
| Thursday 02:00| SCOOS credit officer survey | 🟡 Mid |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last decision highlights (still valid)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp suggests another hike within the year
· PCE/GDP/inflation language adjustment: delete “inflation gradually easing”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.18%; the market is re-pricing another in-year rate hike in the Warsh era.
```
```
⏰ Sep 04 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market snapshot (09/04 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $80,852.00 | +4.38% |
| ETH | $2,505.69 | — |
| SOL | $103.55 | — |
| BNB | $720.19 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08703 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.61B
```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 4
Warsh era’s first central bank week kick-off: **dove vs. eagle showdown** — Bowman testifies + CCAR stress test hit the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies to Congress — Reiterates bank capital / regulatory framework; risks for assets sensitive to hawkishness
2. Next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress test — Big banks’ expected CET1 at 11–12%; a breach of thresholds hits bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 delay carryover for the weekly report release (7 items including H.4.1) — Temporary disruption to US Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Key numbers
Rate 3.50–3.75% · Hold ~95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, includes 1 additional hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
SEP terminal rate revised up + Warsh leaning hawkish = DXY and US Treasury yields stronger; BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Watch Bowman’s remarks at 22:00—if he emphasizes “capital adequacy/anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— The following are details for reference ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP estimates)
| FOMC | cut 25 | hold | hike 25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| --------------| ------------------------------- | ------ |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA talk | 🟡 Mid |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑ See “What to watch today” |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑ See “What to watch today” |
| Thursday 02:00| SCOOS credit officer survey | 🟡 Mid |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Last decision highlights (still valid)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, ↑40bp suggests another hike within the year
· PCE/GDP/inflation language adjustment: delete “inflation gradually easing”
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.18%; the market is re-pricing another in-year rate hike in the Warsh era.
```
```
⏰ Sep 04 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market snapshot (09/04 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $80,852.00 | +4.38% |
| ETH | $2,505.69 | — |
| SOL | $103.55 | — |
| BNB | $720.19 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08703 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.61B
```