$PENDLE Today’s market is very suitable to use for this (from the market maker’s perspective).
In terms of price, PENDLE is up about 7%+ over the past 24 hours.
If you only look at the candlestick chart, this is a perfectly normal strong rebound.
But what I’m truly interested in isn’t how much it rose—
And in this wave of上涨, those two groups of smart money actually took positions on opposite sides.
First, look at the data from the most recent 1 hour.
On the side of the big holders, the trades are clearly skewed toward buying,
with the buy ratio at roughly 98%.
But on the other side, the top traders are selling,
and they’re not selling lightly either.
So, the same goes for facing this wave of上涨,
One group of funds is rushing to buy, while another group is shrinking.
This isn’t simply “all capital is bullish.”
It’s more like:
Some are fighting for the second leg; others are cashing in on the rebound.
Why does this happen?
I lean toward two interpretations.
The first: the big players are chasing the continuation triggered by fundamental catalysts.
Today, $PENDLE itself has news as a catalyst—Aave has launched a risk oracle related to Pendle PT. The market will naturally interpret it as strengthening ecosystem support.
The second possibility is more realistic for top traders.
They don’t necessarily deny $PENDLE’s logic;
they just see that the short-term move is already up, so they treat the rebound as a profit-taking window for now.
So what’s most interesting about this market right now isn’t the fact that it’s up.
Instead:
With the same rise, some think it’s just starting, while others think they should take profit first.
This kind of market is the most dangerous for retail investors.
Because retail investors only see “it’s up 7%”,
and then automatically fill in the blank with “the main players are all bullish.”
But the real data tells you,
there’s actually disagreement inside the market.
Once you ignore this kind of disagreement, the most likely mistake you’ll make is:
turning someone else’s profit-taking phase into your own chasing-the-rally starting point.
So when I look at $PENDLE now, I won’t rush to conclude whether it’s strong or weak.
I only focus on two questions:
First, can the big players’ buy orders keep going?
If in both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts the bias stays net-buying, it means this move hasn’t already finished after just one push.
The second: will the selling pressure from top traders be absorbed by the market?
If the price keeps strengthening, it means the buying/soaking-up power is stronger;
if the price spikes and then quickly gives back, it suggests this move is more like a round of swapping chips by riding favorable news.
PENDLE’s most worth watching today is not a 7% surge.
It’s this:
The price is rising, but smart money isn’t standing on the same side.
while some are buying aggressively, others are selling,
This shows the market isn’t without opportunities;
it’s currently deciding—whether this wave is continuation of the trend or a rebound followed by profit-taking.
Price can be misleading; disagreement in the market’s capital is least likely to lie.
Do you think this move in $PENDLE was the big players getting the second leg right,
or did the top traders spot the profit-taking point earlier?