Yesterday I underestimated the Japanese yen, and the market answered back.
Yesterday $BTC hovered around the 77,000 area, and I didn’t chase it.
The reason is simple: the yen has been rising too fast, and I’m worried that carry-trade capital will start to shrink.
As a result, last night BTC directly surged back above 80,000.
This time, I admit it.
It wasn’t that I was completely wrong on the direction logic yesterday—it’s just that I weighted the yen variable too heavily.
What’s most worth noting is that the yen didn’t show any clear signs of weakening, yet BTC still pushed higher.
This suggests that the market is now more willing to trade something else: worries about U.S. Treasury yields falling and the Fed continuing to tighten have cooled down.
Put simply, last night the money already voted with its feet:
At least for now, the weight of U.S. liquidity outweighs the risk of Japanese tightening.
So today I’m changing my view as well.
After BTC reclaims 80,000, I won’t go short—for the moment.
But just because I missed yesterday doesn’t mean I should rush in today to buy the dip.
This is something I’m increasingly reluctant to do in trading:
Because if you haven’t made money, you start to get anxious.
When the trend is really strong, there will always be a place later.
If the market doesn’t give opportunities all the way, then this profit never really belonged to me in the first place.
I can miss it.
But I don’t want, out of unwillingness, to end up as liquidity that others take profit from.
Yesterday $BTC hovered around the 77,000 area, and I didn’t chase it.
The reason is simple: the yen has been rising too fast, and I’m worried that carry-trade capital will start to shrink.
As a result, last night BTC directly surged back above 80,000.
This time, I admit it.
It wasn’t that I was completely wrong on the direction logic yesterday—it’s just that I weighted the yen variable too heavily.
What’s most worth noting is that the yen didn’t show any clear signs of weakening, yet BTC still pushed higher.
This suggests that the market is now more willing to trade something else: worries about U.S. Treasury yields falling and the Fed continuing to tighten have cooled down.
Put simply, last night the money already voted with its feet:
At least for now, the weight of U.S. liquidity outweighs the risk of Japanese tightening.
So today I’m changing my view as well.
After BTC reclaims 80,000, I won’t go short—for the moment.
But just because I missed yesterday doesn’t mean I should rush in today to buy the dip.
This is something I’m increasingly reluctant to do in trading:
Because if you haven’t made money, you start to get anxious.
When the trend is really strong, there will always be a place later.
If the market doesn’t give opportunities all the way, then this profit never really belonged to me in the first place.
I can miss it.
But I don’t want, out of unwillingness, to end up as liquidity that others take profit from.