Sustainable open interest is rising, but the funding rate hasn’t kept up. On the chart, these past two days are a classic case of “positions getting hot first, while the price hasn’t really moved away.” In this situation, I’d rather look at stablecoin credit instead of rushing to chase $BTC and $ETH .
For this $USDT lawsuit, the focus isn’t the 42.4 million itself—its size isn’t that big for Tether. The real trouble is: “the freeze period is earlier than the attachment order by three months.” This will force the market to reprice something: the USDT you hold— is it on-chain cash, or a liability whose status can be changed at any time by a whitelisted-system process.
Right now I haven’t moved to hedge stablecoins, and I also haven’t converted the USDT spot into something else. The reason is straightforward: the news hasn’t yet hit the trading layer. If it truly does have an impact, I’ll first check two things—whether there’s a sustained discount of USDT versus USD on exchanges, and whether the perpetuals’ basis is showing abnormal expansion. Until I see both signals, I won’t cut positions just because of the headline.
But there is one action I’ve already taken: I reduced total open interest in alt contracts from 18% down to 10%, keeping only $BTC / $ETH . It’s not because I’m bearish on the coin’s price; it’s because tail risks are starting to rise. Once stablecoins become a topic the market discusses as “freezable, and freezable in advance,” the first asset to see liquidity pulled isn’t the majors—it’s the small caps that trade on sentiment.
This kind of news may not necessarily crush price in the short run; it’s more about changing risk appetite. If the market hasn’t reacted, it doesn’t mean the risk isn’t there—many drawdowns start from “everyone thinks it’s fine.” I’m tightening my order first and waiting for the basis and discount to give the answer. $USDT #USDT
If you lose, don’t cue me. If you win, please buy me a coffee.
For this $USDT lawsuit, the focus isn’t the 42.4 million itself—its size isn’t that big for Tether. The real trouble is: “the freeze period is earlier than the attachment order by three months.” This will force the market to reprice something: the USDT you hold— is it on-chain cash, or a liability whose status can be changed at any time by a whitelisted-system process.
Right now I haven’t moved to hedge stablecoins, and I also haven’t converted the USDT spot into something else. The reason is straightforward: the news hasn’t yet hit the trading layer. If it truly does have an impact, I’ll first check two things—whether there’s a sustained discount of USDT versus USD on exchanges, and whether the perpetuals’ basis is showing abnormal expansion. Until I see both signals, I won’t cut positions just because of the headline.
But there is one action I’ve already taken: I reduced total open interest in alt contracts from 18% down to 10%, keeping only $BTC / $ETH . It’s not because I’m bearish on the coin’s price; it’s because tail risks are starting to rise. Once stablecoins become a topic the market discusses as “freezable, and freezable in advance,” the first asset to see liquidity pulled isn’t the majors—it’s the small caps that trade on sentiment.
This kind of news may not necessarily crush price in the short run; it’s more about changing risk appetite. If the market hasn’t reacted, it doesn’t mean the risk isn’t there—many drawdowns start from “everyone thinks it’s fine.” I’m tightening my order first and waiting for the basis and discount to give the answer. $USDT #USDT
If you lose, don’t cue me. If you win, please buy me a coffee.