After touching at 93.02 early this morning, CL has not gone back since. Now 91.5 is sticking to the 20-day moving average line; the 50-day moving average has already been pressing right on top of its head. The 4-hour “center of gravity” has been shifting downward the whole time—on the daily chart it still looks red, but the upper wick of this daily candle is entirely drawn by the bears.
The money didn’t leave; it just changed direction. Open interest increased 3.78% over the past seven hours, but the active buy-side volume only accounts for 28.4%. Seventy percent of the aggressive orders are sells. This batch of newly added positions is almost all short orders pressing down—every time the price steps down one level, someone is rushing to add more shorts.
This time, the bears aren’t here just to gamble on a rebound. Over eight rate-funding samples, none of them turned positive; the bears would rather keep paying interest every day just to hold their positions—they’re determined to push the price down. On the big players’ side, the long positions were cut by 4% over seven hours. Big money is reducing longs, and the orders from retail traders alone can’t prop up this leg.
So here I’m directly bearish: enter short; the first target is to see a pullback to 89.5 along this leg. The only signal that would change my view is if price reclaims and trades back above 92 while the active buy ratio flips over 50%—that would mean the bears are being cornered, and this trade must be immediately acknowledged as wrong. #cl $CL
The money didn’t leave; it just changed direction. Open interest increased 3.78% over the past seven hours, but the active buy-side volume only accounts for 28.4%. Seventy percent of the aggressive orders are sells. This batch of newly added positions is almost all short orders pressing down—every time the price steps down one level, someone is rushing to add more shorts.
This time, the bears aren’t here just to gamble on a rebound. Over eight rate-funding samples, none of them turned positive; the bears would rather keep paying interest every day just to hold their positions—they’re determined to push the price down. On the big players’ side, the long positions were cut by 4% over seven hours. Big money is reducing longs, and the orders from retail traders alone can’t prop up this leg.
So here I’m directly bearish: enter short; the first target is to see a pullback to 89.5 along this leg. The only signal that would change my view is if price reclaims and trades back above 92 while the active buy ratio flips over 50%—that would mean the bears are being cornered, and this trade must be immediately acknowledged as wrong. #cl $CL
