Daily update

The big pancake started from 81478 and went down with a drop at the 4-hour level. This 4-hour-level decline has been running for about 5 days. It’s expected to drop a bit more before turning; then we’ll see how strong the decline is. As for the overall market, this month will most likely end the daily-level rebound that started from 57800. However, it’s not yet clear whether 81478 is the end of that daily rebound—there’s also a possibility of pushing up to make another high before it ends. For now, focus first on this 4-hour-level decline.

Medium- to short-term trend direction

4h timeframe primary direction: At present, it’s expected to see a 4-hour-level decline. Whether it evolves into a daily-level decline can be observed as the move unfolds.

1h cycle direction: The short term is moving through the fourth 1h-level rebound

BTC short-term

Because the market changes quickly in the short term, the article can only make a prediction about the market changes at the moment it was published. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest changes in price action. This is for reference only.

1H:

1) Currently, the fourth 1h-level rebound is in progress. This rebound probably isn’t over yet. It may head toward around 78,800.

2) After the fourth 1h-level rebound finishes, there will be a fifth 1h-level decline. Then judge the strength of that fifth decline.

3) For the overall 4h-level decline, it normally can be seen in the 72,000~74,000 range. If it breaks 71,500, then it is considered to already be a daily-chart-level decline. If it does not break, then consider the next 4h-level rebound.

15M:

1) At the 15-minute level, the short term may consolidate within a 15-minute middle range, and then extend downward a bit further, continuing this 1h-level rebound.

2) Only if it breaks back below 76,900 can we consider that the 1h-level rebound has ended.

3) In recent days, the fluctuations likely won’t be too large. Focus on next week and the week after next in terms of the news backdrop—for example, CPI data, the interest-rate decision meeting, and the bill’s re-vote. Such news could increase volatility.

ETH

1) For ETH here, it should also be moving through the fourth 1h-level rebound. Normally, it could reach around 2450 or slightly above.

2) After the 1h-level rebound ends, there will be a fifth 1h-level decline. At that time, watch the support at 2280.

3) At the 15-minute level, the short-term should proceed with the second 15-minute pullback. As long as it does not break below 2356, there will still be a third 15-minute rebound.