Tomorrow at 8:30 PM, a key turning point—will $BTC surge sharply?
#非农
On September 4, Beijing time, at 8:30 PM, the August non-farm payrolls will be released. Compared to rushing to see how many new jobs were added, what’s more worth paying attention to may be the “previous value revisions” that come afterward.
In the last report, July saw employment decline by 23,000. And May and June were both revised downward by a total of 103,000. That means the jobs that were originally thought to have been added could, after the data is revised, turn out to be far fewer.
That’s why it’s interesting: if tomorrow’s jobs number turns positive, it may look strong at first glance. But if the first two months are clearly revised down again, the overall employment trend may not actually improve. If you only watch the first line of the headline release, you might not even understand what the market is truly trading.
For BTC, this kind of result isn’t necessarily directly bullish either. Cooling employment could ease expectations of further rate hikes. But if the market starts worrying that the economy has problems, funds might sell coins first.
So what matters most this time is whether the improvement in new jobs can withstand revisions, and whether wage growth is also cooling at the same time. Relying on just a single number to decide whether September will see a rate hike—well, that’s a bit too hasty.
One more reminder: this is the last non-farm release before the rate decision, not the very last batch of economic data. There will be CPI on September 11. Even if you guess the direction correctly tomorrow, it still won’t be a situation where you can close your eyes and hold the position.$BTC $ETH #Solana跌逾3% #戴尔财报超预期股价涨8%
#非农
On September 4, Beijing time, at 8:30 PM, the August non-farm payrolls will be released. Compared to rushing to see how many new jobs were added, what’s more worth paying attention to may be the “previous value revisions” that come afterward.
In the last report, July saw employment decline by 23,000. And May and June were both revised downward by a total of 103,000. That means the jobs that were originally thought to have been added could, after the data is revised, turn out to be far fewer.
That’s why it’s interesting: if tomorrow’s jobs number turns positive, it may look strong at first glance. But if the first two months are clearly revised down again, the overall employment trend may not actually improve. If you only watch the first line of the headline release, you might not even understand what the market is truly trading.
For BTC, this kind of result isn’t necessarily directly bullish either. Cooling employment could ease expectations of further rate hikes. But if the market starts worrying that the economy has problems, funds might sell coins first.
So what matters most this time is whether the improvement in new jobs can withstand revisions, and whether wage growth is also cooling at the same time. Relying on just a single number to decide whether September will see a rate hike—well, that’s a bit too hasty.
One more reminder: this is the last non-farm release before the rate decision, not the very last batch of economic data. There will be CPI on September 11. Even if you guess the direction correctly tomorrow, it still won’t be a situation where you can close your eyes and hold the position.$BTC $ETH #Solana跌逾3% #戴尔财报超预期股价涨8%
