$BTC around 77 850$ after a break toward ~76 400: oil has pulled back slightly from yesterday’s highs, but risk-off hasn’t been removed yet — today’s jobs report is before the FOMC on Sep 16.
Numbers. Yahoo ~77 850$ (day ~76 994–78 094$). Brent ~95,1$ / WTI ~90,5$ (Reuters, morning Sep 3; yesterday’s settle ~95,6$ / ~91$). Spot BTC ETF: AUM after Sep 1 ~97,1$ B (late-August peak ~99,6$ B); August inflows ~3,5$ B. Aug 31 +217$ M → Sep 1 −236,5$ M (IBIT −201$) → Sep 2 again +101$ M.
My take: the market isn’t really about whether the “August ETF bid” broke, but how long oil at $95+ keeps the inflation shock in place. As of Sep 2, it has already clawed back part of the outflow — a flush, not a trend change. Soft jobs today could give $BTC air to 78k faster than any speech about Hormuz.
Question: does $BTC today depend more on oil/Hormuz or on NFP ahead of the September FOMC?
Numbers. Yahoo ~77 850$ (day ~76 994–78 094$). Brent ~95,1$ / WTI ~90,5$ (Reuters, morning Sep 3; yesterday’s settle ~95,6$ / ~91$). Spot BTC ETF: AUM after Sep 1 ~97,1$ B (late-August peak ~99,6$ B); August inflows ~3,5$ B. Aug 31 +217$ M → Sep 1 −236,5$ M (IBIT −201$) → Sep 2 again +101$ M.
My take: the market isn’t really about whether the “August ETF bid” broke, but how long oil at $95+ keeps the inflation shock in place. As of Sep 2, it has already clawed back part of the outflow — a flush, not a trend change. Soft jobs today could give $BTC air to 78k faster than any speech about Hormuz.
Question: does $BTC today depend more on oil/Hormuz or on NFP ahead of the September FOMC?