After experiencing a round of heavy sell-off, the global bond market has recently shown early signs of stabilizing. As yields have risen to multi-decade highs, some institutional funds have started to move in to buy on dips. The UK 10-year government bond yield fell 5 basis points to 5.18% after retreating from the record high reached since August 2007. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield edged down 2 basis points, while the US 10-year Treasury benchmark yield also slipped slightly by 1 basis point to 4.77%. At the same time, remarks by former President Trump about the latest conflict between the US and Iran—suggesting it may be “temporary”—have somewhat eased the oil market’s earlier fears of a surge in inflation.
However, from a macro structure perspective, this kind of technical rebound looks more like a game of short-term capital than a clear signal that yields have topped out. UBS Global Asset Management entered the market after Germany’s 30-year government bond yield touched a new within-the-year high of 3.84%, and its main logic still hinges on traditional safe-haven demand under geopolitical risk. But it is essential to be cautious: global energy prices remain fragile, and underlying inflation persistence has not truly been eliminated. Market expectations that central banks will keep rates “higher for longer”—or even further hike—have not been fully reversed.
As long as the long-term risk-free rate stays in the extremely high range of 4.7%–5.2%, the global cost of capital will remain under pressure. Elevated bond yields provide strong support for the US dollar index, while capping valuations for risk assets such as commodities, gold, and global equities. In an environment where investors can earn risk-free returns of more than 5%, their appetite for allocating to high-volatility assets is naturally severely squeezed.
For crypto assets, the tightening reality of the liquidity environment cannot be ignored. While some defensive narratives may occasionally cause short-lived bursts, the normalization of high interest rates is draining speculative liquidity from the market. If US Treasury yields fail to fall effectively and establish a downward channel, $BTC and altcoins are likely to continue facing valuation compression risks driven by persistent liquidity shortages, so investors still need to remain highly cautious at this stage.📊
#美债收益率 #宏观经济 #Liquidity
However, from a macro structure perspective, this kind of technical rebound looks more like a game of short-term capital than a clear signal that yields have topped out. UBS Global Asset Management entered the market after Germany’s 30-year government bond yield touched a new within-the-year high of 3.84%, and its main logic still hinges on traditional safe-haven demand under geopolitical risk. But it is essential to be cautious: global energy prices remain fragile, and underlying inflation persistence has not truly been eliminated. Market expectations that central banks will keep rates “higher for longer”—or even further hike—have not been fully reversed.
As long as the long-term risk-free rate stays in the extremely high range of 4.7%–5.2%, the global cost of capital will remain under pressure. Elevated bond yields provide strong support for the US dollar index, while capping valuations for risk assets such as commodities, gold, and global equities. In an environment where investors can earn risk-free returns of more than 5%, their appetite for allocating to high-volatility assets is naturally severely squeezed.
For crypto assets, the tightening reality of the liquidity environment cannot be ignored. While some defensive narratives may occasionally cause short-lived bursts, the normalization of high interest rates is draining speculative liquidity from the market. If US Treasury yields fail to fall effectively and establish a downward channel, $BTC and altcoins are likely to continue facing valuation compression risks driven by persistent liquidity shortages, so investors still need to remain highly cautious at this stage.📊
#美债收益率 #宏观经济 #Liquidity