What the market lacks least is prediction—especially so-called “celestial prophecies” that pinpoint a specific day as the bottom. The blogger Dr. Profit speaks out about the superstition of a “four-year cycle,” reminding traders to clarify the real triggering conditions behind macro market bottoms.
🔍 Core reasoning logic, broken down:
Limitations of rigid models: The traditional “four-year cycle” is largely based on past experience—namely, halvings and retail capital driving momentum. However, in today’s world, where ETFs have been approved and global macro liquidity dominates, the start of a structural trend depends more on the interest-rate environment and the supply of capital, rather than on any fixed calendar date.
Shift from predicting dates to tracking signals:
Myth: Trying to find the exact date BTC bottoms.
Reality: A bottom is a process of chips rotating within a price range, not something completed at a single point in time.
Strategy execution: Focus on liquidity inflection points and price-volume structure, rather than blindly following the qualitative claims of "cycle forecasters."
The essence of trading lies in responding to the current trend, rather than predicting a specific future date.
