🔥 Weak jobs hit stubborn inflation! August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, the smallest increase in a year. The odds of a September rate hike still stand at as high as 66%!
#美国8月ADP就业创1月来最小增幅
On September 2, the U.S. August ADP employment report showed jobs increased by just 38,000— the smallest gain since January, below the expected 48,000.
📊 Sector split: Healthcare strong, manufacturing weak
· Growth: Education and health services (+45,000), leisure and hospitality (+16,000)
· Contraction: Manufacturing (-17,000), professional business services (-16,000)
· Large firms contributed 34,000 jobs; small businesses added only 3,000
· Wage growth slows across the board: retained employees up only 3.0% year-over-year
📉 Market reaction is muted: ADP weight is declining
After the data release, the U.S. dollar, gold, and Bitcoin didn’t move meaningfully. Funds are more focused on waiting for Friday’s official Non-Farm Payrolls as cross-validation.
⚖️ September rate-hike odds: barely changed
CME FedWatch shows the September rate-hike probability still at 66.2%. The reason: Waller has been clear—he mentioned inflation in the Jackson Hole speech twice as often as the labor market. The unemployment rate at 4.1% remains near historic lows, while the real sleepless issue is the PCE inflation rate at 3.7% and a 6-month annualized figure of 4.1%.
📉 Short term (1–3 months): bearish bias
Weak ADP data isn’t enough to shake Waller’s hawkish stance, and September hike odds remain above 60%. This Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and next week’s CPI are the true deciding factors. If CPI again comes in above expectations, a rate hike will be all but locked in.
🚀 Long term (6 months+): bearish bias
Waller’s “prices first” approach suggests that weaker employment does not equal a policy pivot. With U.S. public debt now above $40 trillion, the duration of the high-rate environment could last longer than the market expects.
One-sentence summary: Even if jobs weaken further, it won’t stop Waller’s determination to fight inflation—this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls + next week’s CPI are the final verdict on September’s rate hike.
Guys, do you think Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls will change the rate-hike path?
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#美国8月ADP就业创1月来最小增幅
On September 2, the U.S. August ADP employment report showed jobs increased by just 38,000— the smallest gain since January, below the expected 48,000.
📊 Sector split: Healthcare strong, manufacturing weak
· Growth: Education and health services (+45,000), leisure and hospitality (+16,000)
· Contraction: Manufacturing (-17,000), professional business services (-16,000)
· Large firms contributed 34,000 jobs; small businesses added only 3,000
· Wage growth slows across the board: retained employees up only 3.0% year-over-year
📉 Market reaction is muted: ADP weight is declining
After the data release, the U.S. dollar, gold, and Bitcoin didn’t move meaningfully. Funds are more focused on waiting for Friday’s official Non-Farm Payrolls as cross-validation.
⚖️ September rate-hike odds: barely changed
CME FedWatch shows the September rate-hike probability still at 66.2%. The reason: Waller has been clear—he mentioned inflation in the Jackson Hole speech twice as often as the labor market. The unemployment rate at 4.1% remains near historic lows, while the real sleepless issue is the PCE inflation rate at 3.7% and a 6-month annualized figure of 4.1%.
📉 Short term (1–3 months): bearish bias
Weak ADP data isn’t enough to shake Waller’s hawkish stance, and September hike odds remain above 60%. This Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and next week’s CPI are the true deciding factors. If CPI again comes in above expectations, a rate hike will be all but locked in.
🚀 Long term (6 months+): bearish bias
Waller’s “prices first” approach suggests that weaker employment does not equal a policy pivot. With U.S. public debt now above $40 trillion, the duration of the high-rate environment could last longer than the market expects.
One-sentence summary: Even if jobs weaken further, it won’t stop Waller’s determination to fight inflation—this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls + next week’s CPI are the final verdict on September’s rate hike.
Guys, do you think Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls will change the rate-hike path?
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB