Global Liquidity Drains: US Treasury Yields Surge, Crypto Faces an “Asphyxiation Moment”
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.814%, the highest since November 2023. Global government bond yields have jumped in tandem, and the probability of a September rate hike has suddenly risen to 69%—this isn’t just expectation; it’s practically confirmed.
The transmission chain is brutal and direct: the risk-free US Treasury rate breaks above 4.8% → funding costs spike → institutional selling pressure on risk assets drives capital back into the US dollar → BTC and ETH grind lower under pressure. Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen 2.14% to $77,336—this is only the beginning. US stocks are being propped up by tech giants like Nvidia, but European and Asia-Pacific markets have already broken down across the board. Global liquidity is being “drained.” As a high-beta, non-yielding asset, crypto is hit first in this macro headwind.
All current rebounds are weak “repairs.” ETH’s struggle around the $2,400 level is unlikely to last. Strategically, respect the trend but don’t chase blindly—rate-hike expectations have already been partially priced in. After a sharp selloff, there may be a technical dead-cat bounce, but every rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure or hedge. If a September rate hike is confirmed, BTC will most likely test the prior low range of $74,000–$76,000. The real “value-buy” timing will come when the rate-hike bearishness has played out and liquidity expectations reverse.
$BTC $ETH #美国10年期美债收益率触及2023年11月来最高
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.814%, the highest since November 2023. Global government bond yields have jumped in tandem, and the probability of a September rate hike has suddenly risen to 69%—this isn’t just expectation; it’s practically confirmed.
The transmission chain is brutal and direct: the risk-free US Treasury rate breaks above 4.8% → funding costs spike → institutional selling pressure on risk assets drives capital back into the US dollar → BTC and ETH grind lower under pressure. Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen 2.14% to $77,336—this is only the beginning. US stocks are being propped up by tech giants like Nvidia, but European and Asia-Pacific markets have already broken down across the board. Global liquidity is being “drained.” As a high-beta, non-yielding asset, crypto is hit first in this macro headwind.
All current rebounds are weak “repairs.” ETH’s struggle around the $2,400 level is unlikely to last. Strategically, respect the trend but don’t chase blindly—rate-hike expectations have already been partially priced in. After a sharp selloff, there may be a technical dead-cat bounce, but every rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure or hedge. If a September rate hike is confirmed, BTC will most likely test the prior low range of $74,000–$76,000. The real “value-buy” timing will come when the rate-hike bearishness has played out and liquidity expectations reverse.
$BTC $ETH #美国10年期美债收益率触及2023年11月来最高
