0.694 was hit to 0.373—down 46% in a day. Now it bounced back to 0.42. It looks like it’s about to reach the bottom, but I refuse to see it that way.
The issue isn’t how much it fell. It’s who’s lifting it during the rebound. For the spot, the large orders—five samples, none were entered. For the contracts, open interest shrank 27.67% after seven hours—while price moves up, positioning moves down. This isn’t fresh long entry. After liquidation, the covering bids push the price up; once the covering is done, nobody steps in to take over.
The funding fee is still positive on the fee side, at 0.015%. Across eight sampling rounds, they’re all positive. After this big wave of decline, longs are still willing to pay interest to hold positions—essentially extending the life of the shorts. Even the whales’ accounts: the long share has dropped to 41.8%, lower than the overall market at 44.8%. Price is still 14% away from the MA50 at 0.49; on the four-hour chart, the net amount is DOWN, and the open interest quadrant is贴着 bear_strong— the trend direction hasn’t changed at all.
I’ll keep shorting. 0.49 is the hurdle for this rebound. When it bounces up into that area, I’ll keep smashing. First look for 0.37; if it breaks, then 0.32.
When I admit I’m wrong: when spot large orders show consecutive net inflows, and price recaptures 0.49 with volume and holds above it—I’ll flip and go long. Until then, any rebound is just handing money to short positions.
#magma $MAGMA
The issue isn’t how much it fell. It’s who’s lifting it during the rebound. For the spot, the large orders—five samples, none were entered. For the contracts, open interest shrank 27.67% after seven hours—while price moves up, positioning moves down. This isn’t fresh long entry. After liquidation, the covering bids push the price up; once the covering is done, nobody steps in to take over.
The funding fee is still positive on the fee side, at 0.015%. Across eight sampling rounds, they’re all positive. After this big wave of decline, longs are still willing to pay interest to hold positions—essentially extending the life of the shorts. Even the whales’ accounts: the long share has dropped to 41.8%, lower than the overall market at 44.8%. Price is still 14% away from the MA50 at 0.49; on the four-hour chart, the net amount is DOWN, and the open interest quadrant is贴着 bear_strong— the trend direction hasn’t changed at all.
I’ll keep shorting. 0.49 is the hurdle for this rebound. When it bounces up into that area, I’ll keep smashing. First look for 0.37; if it breaks, then 0.32.
When I admit I’m wrong: when spot large orders show consecutive net inflows, and price recaptures 0.49 with volume and holds above it—I’ll flip and go long. Until then, any rebound is just handing money to short positions.
#magma $MAGMA
